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Suffering from COVID-19 science overload? This UW team wades through the deluge so you don't have to
2020.09.29 02:58 shoan8Suffering from COVID-19 science overload? This UW team wades through the deluge so you don't have to
For the past five months, a small group of University of Washington faculty and students has been pouring through the hundreds of COVID-19 studies published each day to produce a newsletter that summarizes the most important ones for readers. The COVID-19 Literature Situation Report is published five days a week and is read by public health officials, politicians, community leaders and the general public. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/suffering-from-covid-19-science-overload-this-uw-team-wades-through-the-deluge-so-you-dont-have-to/ Sandi Doughton Seattle Times staff reporter Remember early spring, when it felt like we were all plunged into a crash course in epidemiology, heads spinning with terms like "R-naught," "flatten the curve" and "herd immunity?" Every new nugget of data and scientific insight about the novel coronavirus was headline news, ricocheting from Twitter to technical journals to talking heads. The wall-to-wall coverage has eased since then, but the pace of discovery hasn't. Every day, hundreds of new research papers are published or posted about the virus and pandemic, ranging from case studies of single patients to randomized, controlled trials of potential treatments. It's a fire hose of information that overwhelms even the most fervent COVID-19 science junkies. But there's a way to keep current without having to spend your days and nights clicking through journal websites. For the past five months, a small group of faculty and students at the University of Washington has been wading through the deluge so you don't have to. Five days a week, the Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness produces the " COVID-19 Literature Situation Report ," which provides a succinct summary of key scientific developments. "It's a very distilled version," said Brandon Guthrie , assistant professor of global health and epidemiology and co-leader of the effort. "What are the most important things (we) need to know that are coming out today?" A typical report includes a list of key takeaways and summaries of a dozen or so studies, sorted into categories like "testing and treatment," "transmission" and "public health policy." There's also a shortlist of other interesting research, along with links for those who want to delve more deeply. It's a quick read and mostly jargon-free in keeping with a target audience that includes not only public health officials, but also politicians, community leaders and the general public. The group also prepares occasional in-depth reports about issues of pressing interest, like the long-term health effects of COVID-19. The project started as an effort by staff at the Washington Department of Health (DOH) to keep up with rapid-fire developments early in the outbreak. But the agency was stretched too thin and contracted with Guthrie and his colleagues to continue and expand the work. Their initial distribution list was 40 people. Today, about 1,600 subscribers get the email newsletter, many of whom share it via other websites and online bulletin boards. Guthrie has heard from readers at the CDC and top universities around the country. Members of Gov. Jay Inslee's staff are on the distribution list. Producing what the team calls the "LitRep" is a daily deadline dance that starts at 6 a.m. and doesn't end until Guthrie or his co-leader Dr. Jennifer Ross , an infectious disease specialist at UW Medicine, hit the "send" button about 12 hours later. Much of the work is done by a rotating group of five students — mostly doctoral candidates in global health or epidemiology — who work in shifts on a kind of virtual assembly line. The early birds gather the raw materials, using standard search terms to pull all the new studies posted on PubMed , a free government search engine, and medRxiv and bioRxiv , which posts preprints before peer review. They also manually check several high-profile journals, including the Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine. The average haul is about 400 papers a day but can range between 200 and 1,000, said Lorenzo Tolentino, who just finished his master's degree at the UW Department of Global Health and was one of the first students to sign on for the project. The second shift is "sorting" — the laborious process of scanning titles and abstracts and identifying the most significant ones. "It can be pretty mind-numbing at times, especially when you've got more than 400," said Tolentino, who's working from his home in Atlanta. He's gotten fast — he can zip through 40 articles in 10 minutes — and good at weeding out those that don't make the cut: Studies with tiny sample sizes; detailed analyses of viral structure; hospital protocols for treating patients. What the team is looking for are well-designed and executed studies with public health significance. Vaccine updates, analyses of school openings, modeling projections and reports about the impact of masks or social distancing get high priority. So do studies with a Washington or Northwest connection. Once they've identified their top picks for the day, the two people working the sorting shift swap lists and narrow them down to the final two dozen or so. The team member on the next shift reads the studies and crafts bullet points and summaries before handing off to Guthrie and Ross for last-minute additions and editing by 6 p.m. It's a very strict schedule, which is sometimes challenging to meet," said Ross, who also treats patients, helps lead a study of veterans with COVID-19 and is trying not to neglect her long-standing research on tuberculosis in Sub-Saharan Africa. She sometimes edits and transmits the report at the hospital after rounds. Once, she left her family at a backcountry campsite while she drove to a spot with Wi-Fi reception. Wenwen Jiang, a doctoral student in epidemiology, is also busy with her own research on ways to help pregnant women with HIV in Kenya stick to their treatment regimens — even though she can't travel at the moment. But she jumped at the chance to work on the situation report, because she felt helpless watching the virus flare in her native China and race around the globe. "Personally, I do not see this as just a job," she said. "This is something I want to help with from the bottom of my heart." Her parents, who live in the coastal city of Dalian near Beijing, can't read the reports in English, so she briefs them on the most important news during their video chats. Jiang convinced them to start wearing masks early in the pandemic even though they — like many Americans — initially dismissed the virus as no more dangerous than the flu. Inspired by her daughter's example, Jiang's mother recently started volunteering with a community testing program in Dalian. "They support me in continuing in this work and I agree with them one hundred percent," Jiang said. The DOH contract expires at the end of October, but Guthrie and the team hope it will be extended at least through June. There's certainly no sign that either the pandemic or the level of scientific output is waning, he said. "Nothing in my career has been anything like this." Sandi Doughton: 206-464-2491 or [email protected]; on Twitter: @SandiDoughton.
2020.09.28 15:25 beatricepeterssonStorj Labs Helps NEM, IoDLT Improve Sync Times for MongoDB by 15x
Users of NEM's Symbol Platform Can Now Leverage the Benefits of Decentralized Storage When Setting Up New Nodes or Syncing Existing Nodes https://preview.redd.it/6wq0b2c54wp51.png?width=1100&format=png&auto=webp&s=356543052eca807d954c14e6cb9b0e2c84523e85 ATLANTA, Sept. 24, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Storj Labs today announced an integration with NEM to accelerate sync times for the NEM Symbol platform, improving the performance of connecting new nodes to the network and analyzing blockchain data. The solution—which was built by NEM partner IoDLT—leverages the native MongoDB integration that allows users to easily store data on the Tardigrade decentralized cloud storage service. IoDLT specializes in creating an affordable internet of things (IoT) solution that leverages the power of the NEM blockchain. IoDLT operates a Symbol node and the team noticed that as blocks are added, which increases the amount of data on the blockchain, it becomes increasingly difficult to sync a full node in a reasonable amount of time. To solve this problem, IoDLT configured MongoDB snapshots to be sent to Tardigrade, making it much faster to quickly rehydrate Symbol's API state to any location across the globe, improving accessibility. "By using Tardigrade to store and distribute the MongoDB snapshots needed to set up a Symbol node, the process is reduced from 44 minutes to 2-3 minutes, an almost 1,500% improvement," said Bader Youssef, IoDLT Chief Technology Officer. "Our team is proud of the Tardigrade integration we built and we're looking forward to seeing how NEM community members and users take advantage of these new benefits from Tardigrade." NEM's Symbol is a distributed ledger technology (DLT) built by NEM developers that is designed to deliver high throughput, accelerating sync times for new nodes, data analysis, and reducing costs for node operators. Symbol extracts NEM blockchain data into a MongoDB instance, which greatly improves accessibility. By pushing these MongoDB snapshots to Tardigrade—Storj Labs' decentralized cloud storage service—NEM can make the data even more accessible by leveraging the service's decentralized architecture. Tardigrade's decentralized architecture makes it a great place to store large datasets that are downloaded from many different locations, such as blockchain data. With nearly 9,000 nodes located around the world, Tardigrade has a very wide distribution, making downloads fast even from remote locations. The platform has been designed to easily integrate with an array of open source software partners including MongoDB. "To drive wide adoption of blockchains, we need to greatly accelerate their speed and scalability and our team has made this a top priority for NEM," said Dave Hodgson, Chief Investment Officer at NEM Group. "We're excited about this community-led integration with Tardigrade by IoDLT, as it supports the ecosystem's performance goals, while also adding to our decentralized infrastructure. By leveraging new technologies, approaches, and working together with robust projects like Storj to solve some of the biggest challenges in the blockchain industry, we will help drive broader adoption." Every file uploaded to Tardigrade is end-to-end encrypted by design, erasure-coded for redundancy, and stored across 80 uncorrelated end-points. A file can be rebuilt by downloading any 30 of its 80 parts. This delivers cross-geography redundancy for every file at no additional cost. The platform's decentralized architecture also means that end-points have a greater geographic distribution, making it much faster to download from anywhere in the world. "It's great to see some of the biggest leaders in the blockchain industry adopt Tardigrade to accelerate performance of their platforms and services," said Shawn Wilkinson, Storj Labs Cofounder and Chief Strategy Officer. "NEM's Symbol platform has the potential to drive adoption of blockchain technologies across the enterprise, government, and consumer spaces, and we're proud to have Tardigrade be a part of this solution." To drive wide adoption of decentralized cloud storage, Tardigrade delivers performance on par with centralized cloud storage providers, while lowering costs by approximately half. The platform is also easy to start using, with a wide array of bindings for common coding languages and integrations with popular open source software tools, meaning migrating to Tardigrade is often as easy as entering user credentials or changing a line or two of code. Source
2020.09.24 23:36 blackjack_counterNFL: Let's talk about teasers (Week 3)
What are the best teasers to play? Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is:
Take the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3;
Take the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
The strategy listed above is very similar to the strategy written by Blackjack expert Stanford Wong in his book Sharp Sports Betting. There's debate in Wong teasers over whether we should play games at exactly +3, whether we should care about the home team, and whether we should care about the total. My opinions on those three debates are yes to +3, no to home/road splits, and maybe to totals. Read my post in Week 1 for the full mathematical details. What are the best sweetheart teasers? 10-point teasers are often called "sweetheart" teasers. Our methodology on 10-point teasers is:
For 10-point teasers, take the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Do not take sweetheart teasers on favorites.
Will following this strategy definitely mean I make money? Once upon a time, this strategy used to be quite reliable. In 2020, I don't have enough conclusive evidence to say that Wong teasers are indeed a winning strategy. Besides, all of this seems very data-miney and that makes me uncomfortable. Personally, I'm not ready to commit real money to this strategy yet. Rather, I'll be using this year to track, in real-time, how these Wong bets are doing. For my tracking this year, I'll be counting underdogs and favorites separately. I won't be paying attention to totals or home/road splits. What were the results in Week 2 this year? I'm using the closing line at Bovada to determine which games qualify as Wong bets. (You can use sbrodds.com to verify I'm being honest about what the closing numbers were.) These were the games and results in Week 2 this year:
Los Angeles Rams +1½
San Francisco -7½
Tampa Bay -7½
What percentage of teaser legs have hit in the past? Assuming that a 2-team, 6-point teaser pays out at -120, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to have positive EV. For 3-team sweethearts paying out at -130, the threshold is 82.7%.
+1½ thru +3
+1½ thru +3
+1½ thru +3
+1½ thru +3
-7½ thru -9
-7½ thru -9
-7½ thru -9
-7½ thru -9
+1½ thru +2½
+1½ thru +2½
+1½ thru +2½
+1½ thru +2½
What are the Week 3 plays being tracked? As of the time of this post, these would be the Wong plays for this week.
Green Bay +3
Los Angeles Rams +2
Miami +3 (Thursday)
I emphasize that the list above is unofficial. If the line moves between the time of this post and kickoff of the game, you might see some games fall off of this list or some games be added to this list. The determining factors are what sbrodds.com says Bovada's closing line is and the methodology laid out at the top of this post. If Bovada's spread happens to be a point or so off of the consensus or if they engage in line shading, then so be it. However I reserve the right to reject Bovada's number in situations where it's obviously wrong, such as a typo causing -8 to turn into -80. In all of my data so far, I've yet to invoke this right. If I ever do in the future, I promise to disclose that information anytime I post tracking results. Why play the closing lines? The strategy is to bet into the "most accurate line" possible and the assumption is that later lines are more accurate. The word "accurate" here is meant to describe a situation where the probability of the actual result landing on either side of the line is close to 50/50. To win a teaser bet, we can either beat the regular spread or win the leg because the actual final score (margin) landed on a number that we gained through teaser movement.
Teaser leg win%
Beat regular spread
Margin lands on line movement
There's two variables in the probability equation above, so let's talk about both of them. First is your ability to beat the normal spread, written as probability X. You have two options for X:
Door #1: bet into an accurate line, in which case X is 50%.
Door #2: bet into an inaccurate line, in which case X is either below 50% or above 50%.
The act of choosing door #2 is to "handicap" the game yourself; you find inaccurate lines by taking advantage of virgin numbers or by forming your own opinion on the game based on what you know about the teams. Door #1 is to ignore all information. In a straight bet ATS, probability X is the only way to win the bet. (That is to say, Y=0 in a non-teaser.) Because the payout is usually around -110, door #1 is guaranteed to be a losing strategy in straight ATS bets. Nobody can beat the spread consistently by blinding throwing darts at the board. That's why you're encouraged to pick door #2 in straight bets ATS. If you're already good at picking door #2, then more power to you; keep making your money by beating the regular spread on normal non-teaser bets. The reason why you're encouraged to pick door #1 in Wong teasers is because you're taking advantage of the teaser line movement. In the equation from above, X=50% is sufficient if we can make probability Y large enough. Y depends on your ability to tease through key numbers. Sure, X greater than 50% is nice to have. But if the situation says X=50% is enough, what's the incentive in risking door #2? How can I play tonight's game if I'm supposed to wait for closing numbers on Sunday's games? This post is merely counting what percentage of Wong legs hit. It's meant to determine your expected value on Wong teasers, not necessarily your actual value. Whether or not tonight's Miami +9 hits is relevant in determining the long-term validity of future Wong teasers as a whole. Whether or not you're able to get action down on tonight's Miami +9 isn't within the scope of this post. That having been said, some books will allow you to play open-ended teasers where you can fill in the first leg now and the second leg later. But also keep in mind that my official advice regarding Wong teasers is to not play them until further research is conducted. How often are you going to post? Once a week. Usually Saturday evening, but I will adjust the timeline forward in situations where the Thursday game is potentially a tracked play.
2020.09.17 14:21 erictaylorseyebrows[OC] Punt Rank 2020: Punt Rank is back! Welcome to your 2020 season of punting stats and analysis.
PUNT RANK IS BACK FOR 2020!
Welcome back Punt Fans – pull up a seat at the ultimate in specialist Special Teams analysis, breaking up your unhealthy diet of calorific Power Rankings, sauce covered contract extension speculation and butter basted week-to-week hot takes and replacing it with the fibrous, stats-based goodness that your body and mind will thank you for. Plus we will also definitely have hot takes.
What in the good heck is Punt Rank and why should I care?
I’m glad you asked. Punt Rank is nfl’s very own methodologically questionable look at every NFL punter, creating a weekly league table containing every punt by every punter in the 2020 season. Now entering our third year of over-engineered analysis, we’ll look at the best in punting performances in each gameweek and settle one of the top (600) debates in pro football – exactly who is the best punter in the NFL?
Er, right. Why are you doing this?
I just love punting. For most people it's the part of the game when they go and get a beer, or a hotdog, or throw themselves off the top of the stadium after another three yard screen pass on 3rd and 9 (miss you, Rob Boras). But for me it's a vital element in turning a defended attack into attacking defense and flipping the field, in putting pressure on returners and creating chances for turnovers, and most importantly for absolutely averagely built dudes (shout out Jon Ryan, miss you BB) to be NFL heroes, or die trying [see: Spencer Lanning vs. Antonio Brown, or when Ryan Winslow blew out his knee on the very first play of his NFL career]. Plus the Rams were utter ass between 2012 and 2017 and Johnny Hekker was basically the one good thing in my football existence and now I have Stockholm Syndrome for punting.
I see... How does it work then?
Using NFL data for each punter, I have created a new measure of punting greatness - the Punt Rank. Punt Rank factors in five measures designed to reflect the most important parts of the punters job:
Effectiveness at flipping the field (measured by Net Avg Yds);
Distance based precision (% touchbacks, and % punts downed Inside the 20);
Returnability and field placement (% punts returned, and % Gross Yards Lost).
By ranking each punter against all the others in each of the five categories and weighting the results to reflect relative importance (STAY WITH ME THROUGH THE SCIENCE FOLKS) we can see who is the most efficient overall punter in the league. Annnnnnd we can use this as a safe space to post videos of when punters entirely forget to kick the ball (Jordan Berry 2019 I see you) or when they blow the living frick out of punt returners which we can all agree is totally awesome (Mitch ‘Flag Me Outside’ Wishnowsky every week).
Yeah I'm already losing interest. What happened last season?
Unbefrickinglievingly, Week 3 Free Agent Pickup Bryan Anger (HOU) was the Best Punter in the NFL™ in 2019. Anger, who was nowhere NEAR an NFL roster at the start of the season (having been expunged by the Bucs for younger and significantly less bald Bradley Pinion), somehow shiny-headed himself into a three year, $8m contract in Houston following the sad demise of Trevor Daniel RIP. And boy did it end well. Anger had career bests in 4 of the 5 punt rank metrics, and with 53.3% of his punts downed inside the 20 had the fourth best In20 season of the entire decade. Just ahead of… Bryan Anger’s 2016 season in Tampa. And at the bottom of Punt Rank for 2019? Well, if it isn’t our hirsute friend Bradley Pinion in Tampa Bay. Anger’s $11m replacement proceeded to wildly and comprehensively suck for the majority of last year. Sure, the Bucs didn’t punt very often (57 punts on the season, only six teams punted less), but when they did they were short, wobbly and not very handsome (good if you’re Danny DeVito, less good in punting terms). Also in the Bottom 5 of Punt Rank last year? #31, Michael Palardy (CAR) – out for 2020 with an ACL that some (me) are speculating he sustained to avoid another ignominious punting season. #30, Jordan Berry (PIT) – 20th August 2020, Jordan Berry and his wife celebrate the birth of their first child, Emily. 7th September 2020, Jordan Berry is CUT LIKE A DEAD TREE by the Steelers to make room for veteran Chiefs legend Dustin Colquitt (ranked #16 last year, they’ve obviously been reading Punt Rank in Pittsburgh). Guess he’s got a little longer to enjoy some family time now. Congrats on the baby and stuff (sorry about your job). #29, Chris Jones (DAL) – inexplicably held on to his job this year despite a career low Gross Avg Yards of 41.6 and a league worst Net Average Yards of 37.0. They obviously aren’t reading Punt Rank in Dallas (shout out though Bones). #28, Colby Wadman (DEN) – cut diddly cut dang doodilly cut cut CUT. Wadman was second last in Punt Rank in 2018. Wadman was fifth last in 2019. Wadman is not a very good punter. Veteran Sam Martin comes over from Detroit and puts an end to Wadman’s woes. Colby, we’d be lying if we said we’d miss you, it’s best if we both try to move forward now. And, that’s just what I suggest we do. Let’s hear it for 2020!
#Puntersarepeopletoo. And we have new ones!
Braden Mann (NYJ 2020 6th Rd Pick 191, Texas A&M). Ladies and gentlemen we got one! The New York Jets replaced Lachlan Edwards (ranked 22 last season, they’ve obviously etc etc) with punting phenom Braden Mann, whose frankly astonishing leg broke all kinds of distance records in college football. Hope he’s not been skipping leg day in the offseason, the Jets punted 87 (EIGHTY SEVEN!) times last year, so Mann can expect to work from Day 1. Sterling Hofrichter (ATL 2020 7th Rd Pick 228, Syracuse). As DJ Khaled would say: AND ANOTHER ONE. Two punters drafted – what a time to be alive. And this one is faaaannncy. Sterling Hofrichter comes out of Syracuse as a two time All-ACC player and looks to settle the punting situation in Atlanta that saw four guys share the job last year after long time incumbent Matt Bosher’s groin finally said ‘no mas’. Fave Hofrichter fact (only Hofrichter fact): Hofrichter translates [roughly!] to Yard Judge. The Birds will hope he lives up to his frankly awesome name. Joseph Charlton (CAR UDFA20, South Carolina). Local boy done good! Alumnus of AC Flora High School (shout out you Falcons!) and University of South Carolina (Gamecocks, yeah!), takes over as a, uh, well a Panther (sorry bird teams) from the knee-crocked Michael Palardy in Carolina. Styles himself as ‘Ritz Charlton’ on Instagram. Let’s hope no Australian rock stars die in any of his bathrooms in the immediate future. Jack Fox (DET, UDFA19, Rice). Rookie punting battle in Detroit! Rookie punting battle in Detroit! Jack Fox eventually beat out plucky Aussie ex-AFL player Arryn Siposs to the Lions job, and immediately shoots to the top of the generic punter name pile just behind Andy Lee and Sam Martin. Snore. Tommy Townsend (KC, UDFA20, Florida). I’ve got very little for you here other than Tommy T has got absolutely sensational hair. So, now we’re caught up on who’s in, out and shaking it all about, let’s get into the stats from Week 1 of the 2020 NFL Season
Thomas Morstead (NO, new entry at #1). Somebody check the attic for the slaughtered virgins and the litres of their blood he's drinking ‘cos there’s no way Tommy should still be this good in the twilight (get it, vampires and shit?) of his career. What a day against Tompa Bay - six punts, five (83%) downed inside the 20, 76% of Avg Available Field covered, zero return yards given up, and one awesome short field kick-off causing a hideous Special Teams fumble by the Bucs, putting the Saints in position to close out the divisional win. This man is an artist and a joy to watch. Enjoy him. That's an order.
Jake Bailey (NE, new entry at #8). From the old school to the new. Jake Bailey has been a revelation in New England (and not just because he’s right footed). Great start for the sophomore punter against the Dolphins – 100% of his three punts downed inside the 20 (11, 8 and 13 yard lines), and his NAY of 40.7 covered a league leading 79% of his Average Available Field of 51 yards. Bailey has the precision to work in tight spaces, and he showed it off this week.
Bad Week for
Braden Mann (NYJ, new entry at #26). Braden has to be wondering what he’s let himself in for here. First three Jets drives: three and out, punts from his own 12. Three and out, punts from his own 20. Three and out, punts from his own 25. I guess they were getting better, but punting for this team is a one way trip to RSI-ville. 6 punts on the week, 0% inside the 20 (unsurprising given he was 9000 miles away), but also only covering 48% of his Average Available Field of 73 yards. Could be a long year for the rook (and let’s face it, for the Jets).
Kevin Huber (CIN, new entry at #15). K-Hubs is just excited to be out here. So excited in fact that he blooted 50% of his six punts straight through the end zone for touchbacks. OK so one of them was a season long SEVENTY YARDER, but giving up a free 20 yards on the 51 and 55 yard others isn’t a great look. What IS a great look however, is this Instagram account that’s just the same picture of Kevin Huber posted every day. Strong recommend.
Punt of the week – Week 1
Jamie Gillan (CLE). Majestic work from The Scottish Hammer in the second quarter of their game against the Ravens. Punting from his own 40 yard line, TSH unleashed a mighty rocket which slithered to the Ravens 1 yard line (98% of Available Field) putting 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offence under enormous press… they… they did… they what? 99 yard, 10 play touchdown drive?! Oh. Well. You did your best, Jamie.
Punter fail of the week – Week 1
Jamie Gillan again folks. Less majestic this time. First punt formation of the season, 4th and 4, you get the fake call, best not to run straight into the coverage man, spill the football and turn the ball over at your own 30 yard line. Sure you did your best, Jamie. Just unfortunate that your best was absolutely shambolic.
Alarming Punt Trend of the Week
That hideous fake punt on 4th down, from their own 30 yard line, in the first quarter was highly alarming to me. Not just because it was terribly, terribly executed. But mostly because Week 1 in 2020 saw the fewest total number of punts (119) in the last 10 years of the opening weekends. It also saw the highest number of run/pass plays called on 4th down (38) in Week 1 in the last 10 years. These facts are inherently related. Teams went for it on a total of 24% of 4th down plays this year, compared to an average of 15% in the last 10 years. The good old fashioned 'admit defeat and boot it back on 4th and short' conservative punt strategy is in danger! I’m thinking about starting a crowdfunding campaign. Support your local punters people, we’ll miss them when they’re gone. That sombre thought wraps up our coverage for Week 1 – hope you’ve enjoyed reading and would love to hear your thoughts and comments. See you in Week 2! Yours, Eyebrows.
2020.09.15 20:25 JBL_0BC -Details of Sinaloa Cartel's massive narcolab discovery earlier this month
Monday, September 14, 2020 01:00 PM Zeta Investigations Elements of the State Investigation Agency did not imagine the size and capacity of the drug laboratory located in the wild and desert zone of Mexicali, when in the area, as part of an investigation of crimes of the common jurisdiction, they carried out an inspection. The operation carried out in the southern part of the Bypass to Tijuana, about 28 kilometers away from the border line between Mexico and the United States, culminated in the discovery of one of the largest drug laboratories detected in the State Capital in recent years. years, when eight tons of precursors were found. According to the latest DEA report, this narcotic has a price of around $ 300 and $ 700 per ounce on the streets of the neighboring country to the North, depending on its distance and purity. Several kilometers driving through gaps, loose earth and "duninous" terrain are required to cross to locate the drug laboratory discovered by elements of the Mexicali State Investigation Agency, who entered the mountainous area located south of the Ejido Heriberto Jara in search of known as "car cemeteries", whose name originates from the "skeletons" of the units dismantled and abandoned by low-level criminals. Not far from the stone materials extraction area, the drug laboratory was located, which was initially said to have around eight tons of precursors for the production of methamphetamine, but after data cleaning carried out by experts and police from the The Attorney General's Office (FGE), the figure stood at three tons of chemicals and just over 3,000 liters of various liquids. A source from the Mesa de Seguridad para la Construcción de la Paz commented that it is most likely the largest documented narcotics production facility in Mexicali, simply by observing the containers and the material located. All the sources consulted agree on one statement: the laboratory must belong to the Sinaloa Cartel. And it is that installing a property of this magnitude in the State Capital is unthinkable for other criminal groups, since the predominant mafia activities throughout the municipality correspond to the group led by Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada and "Los Chapitos", Iván Archivaldo and Alfredo Guzmán Salazar; Mexicali is the only town outside the bloody conflict between the Sinaloa, Arellano Félix (CAF) and Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) cartels. The setback to organized crime perpetrated by elements of the FGE, the Attorney General's Office (FGR), the National Guard and the Mexican Army, is the second of its kind in Mexicali, since only on August 29, in the Benito Juárez Ejido, elements of the State Security and Investigation Guard (GESI) dismantled another drug laboratory, but with incomparable dimensions, since it had only a few plastic containers with precursors for methamphetamine, a bag of caustic soda and various chemicals. It also had gas burners, containers, and a butane tank. Similarly, on May 25, the police and military corporations coordinated to strike another blow at the Sinaloa Cartel, by “ bursting ” a warehouse on Reforma Street, in Ensenada, which concluded on June with the dismantling of a laboratory of drugs in Tecate, where they seized precursors to manufacture more than a ton of methamphetamine, according to the accounts carried out by the authorities themselves. THE MEXICALI NARCOLABORATORY Although the FGE established that the discovery was made through intelligence work, the reality is that FGE investigators were carrying out other types of procedures inherent to their functions when they discovered the narcotics production center located south of the Mexicali Bypass. The finding was made known to the media on the afternoon of Saturday, September 5, but in reality it was found three days earlier, at the stroke of two in the afternoon. The terrain is totally rugged. Chamizos and land is the only thing observed in the vicinity, having the mountains adjacent to the Laguna Salada as the only reference method. On the slopes of one of the hills the narcotics laboratory was located, which used a kind of cardboard shadow to camouflage itself with the physical conditions of the area, and thus not be detected with drones or other types of aerial vehicles. The gap blurs as one advances through the complicated path; to one side you can see what appears to be a makeshift camp and some beer cans that confirm the presence of people in the area. Upon discovering it, elements of the State Investigation Agency (AEI) reported the events to colleagues from various corporations, and in a short time, both the GESI, the National Guard, the Army and the FGR, came to the site to protect it and process the scene. The laboratory could be divided into five camps with slight distances where - according to the FGR inventory - the following were located: -500 kilograms of Sodium Cyanide - One and a half tons of Zinc Sulfate - An open caustic soda weighing 400 kilograms - 100 kilograms of Sodium Carbonate - 350 kilograms of Phenyl Acetic Acid - 800 liters of Hydrochloric Acid - 100 liters of Nitric Acid - 2 thousand liters of Benzyl Chloride - 150 liters of acetone. GESI also identified: -12 buckets with a capacity of 20 liters with an indeterminate chemical mixture that seems to be distilled and finished - A metallic condenser - 10 gas tanks - A chemical mixer - A 30 foot pool - 15 bags of caustic soda - A reactor with a condenser - A metallic reactor. The first official report from local authorities far exceeded the one provided by the FGR, since it spoke of eight tons of precursors and up to 5,000 liters of other undefined liquids, but the FGR carried out the last official inventory and decreased the figure. According to the GESI, the insured was: Place A: - 305 sacks of 25 kilos each of Zinc Sulfate with a total weight of 7 thousand 625 kilos (at the entrance of the laboratory) - A container of approximately one cubic meter, with a round solid substance (Sodium Cyanide) - 15 brown cardboard sacks, 25 kilos each, weighing 375 kilos with whitish Sodium Hydroxide flakes - 8 brown cardboard sacks with 22.5 kilos each, weighing 180 kilos, containing Sodium Carbonate - 15 brown cardboard sacks of 20 kilos each, weighing 300 kilos, containing Tartaric Acid - 3 drums with a total of 180 liters of a yellowish liquid called Benzyl Chloride. Place B: - 11 green drums with a capacity of 200 liters, giving a total of 2,200 liters with various amounts of Hydrochloric Acid - A 200 liter black drum of Nitric Acid - 13 blue drums, with a capacity of 200 liters, giving a total of 2,600 liters of acetone - 4 brown tubs each containing Benzyl Chloride - 5 drums of 60 liters capacity, whose liquid produced a total of 300 liters of Benzyl Chloride Place C: - A container with mechanical agitation containing Benzyl Chloride. Place D: - 3 drums filled with 200 liters with Benzyl Chloride - 4 reactors of various sizes -7 sacks of 25 kilos with a total weight of 175 kilos of Zinc Sulfate - A 20 liter bucket with Benzyl Chloride. Place E: - A brown tub with Sodium Cyanide - 3 brown tubs, full of Phenylacetic Acid - A reactor - 8 sacks of 25 kilograms with a total weight of 200 kilos of Sodium Hydroxide. There were no arrests at the site, but a 1994 Geo Trucks brand Tracker vehicle was located , blue, series 2CNBE18U5R6945632 and without license plates, which contained a report of theft from September 2 of this year, in the name of Felipe de Jesús González Lamas, resident of Avenida Río Casas Grandes, Colonia Villa Verde de Mexicali, about whom no further information has been sought by the authorities. EU, THE NATURAL DESTINY According to the National Drug Threat Assessment of the United States Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) presented in December 2019 - the last general report carried out by the Agency - it establishes that more than 80% of the drug Synthetic that is consumed in the US comes from clandestine laboratories in Mexico. Said report establishes that 95% of the seizures of synthetic drugs take place in the Northwest border of Mexico, which suggests that there is a marked tendency to traffic this type of drugs through this area. A source from the Mesa de Seguridad para la Construcción de la Paz commented that it is much less risky to produce drugs 10, 20 or 30 kilometers from the border, than to do it in entities such as Sinaloa, Guerrero, Michoacán or Durango, where distances are They become a huge risk for criminal groups in their quest to traffic narcotics, since they have to go through several military checkpoints. For this reason, these improvised production buildings have been detected in remote areas or areas with difficult access. In addition to the two laboratories mentioned, it is important to remember the one that the Mexican Army discovered in August 2018, in La Rumorosa, in Tecate, which during the year of operation that it apparently maintained, was able to produce up to 73 tons of narcotic. This methamphetamine production center is the largest detected in Baja California and was located about 26 kilometers from the border line -3 kilometers less than the one located in Mexicali-. At that time, the Army considered that the entire equipment would have a value of 3 million dollars, an investment that was surely recovered immediately by the Sinaloa criminal organization. Also, “in September 2018, the Mexican authorities located and secured the first alleged clandestine operation to grind carfentanil pills in Mexico in the border city of Mexicali. A Bulgarian biochemist and his Mexican co-conspirator, both allegedly associated with the Sinaloa Cartel, were arrested during the operation. The dismantling of this laboratory led to the seizure of 20,000 allegedly counterfeit carfentanil pills and a pill press. The Bulgarian biochemist is also accused, along with a second Mexican national associate, of conspiring to distribute carfentanil throughout the United States, ”according to the National Drug Threat Assessment presented by the United States Anti-Drug Force in January 2020. The same DEA report states that the production of synthetic drugs in North America has decreased directly as the production of methamphetamine in Mexico increases. It points out that from 2012 to 2018, drug laboratories in the neighboring country of the North were reduced by 88% (from 13,657 to 1,568), and in the last year, 85% of the production centers in the United States had capacities production of 2 oz. maximum. This does not translate into less consumption, since the report states that from 2005 to 2017 - the latest official public data - deaths from synthetic drug use increased by 543%, maintaining a direct constant from 1,608 to 10,333 deaths. Authorities of the main drug consumer in the world establish that “with the increase in availability of products and foreign sources of methamphetamine from Mexico, national production will continue to decrease and most of the seized laboratories will probably remain in areas further away from the source of supply. and closer to the SWB - the Southwest border, for its acronym in English- ”. The laboratory located in Mexicali would be 29 kilometers from the border line, so it would only have to cross the city to reach its first challenge in one of the checkpoints, or else, cross the desert. Coinciding with this statement, an increase in conversion laboratories was detected in the United States, which aim to restore its solid characteristics to methamphetamine, since one of the most popular methods to circumvent the border authorities is to dissolve it in liquid. The DEA has spotted conversion labs from California to Atlanta.
2020.09.15 18:35 IllustriousProgram5$TAUG news update ~ Tauriga Sciences Inc. Becomes Vendor to 5th Major U.S. Airport -- Dallas Fort Worth International Airport
Tauriga Sciences Inc. Becomes Vendor to 5th Major U.S. Airport -- Dallas Fort Worth International Airport https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/09/15/2093703/0/en/Tauriga-Sciences-Inc-Becomes-Vendor-to-5th-Major-U-S-Airport-Dallas-Fort-Worth-International-Airport.html The Company is Focused on Selling its Tauri-Gum™ Product Line to Airport Kiosks and Select On-Site Retailers NEW YORK, NY, Sept. 15, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- via NEWMEDIAWIRE -- Tauriga Sciences, Inc. (OTCQB: TAUG) (“Tauriga” or the “Company”), a revenue generating, diversified life sciences company, with a proprietary line of functional “supplement” chewing gums (Flavors: Pomegranate, Blood Orange, Peach-Lemon, Pear Bellini, Mint, Black Currant) as well as two ongoing Biotechnology initiatives, today announced that it secured its Vendor Certification from a 5th major U.S. Airport(s): Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (“DFW”). Previously, during August 2020, the Company disclosed that it successfully registered as a Vendor (“Supplier”) to Tampa International Airport (“TPA”), Atlanta / Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (“ATL”), and Houston / Hobby International Airport (“HOU”) and George Bush International Airport (“IAH”). The Company believes that the airport market segment (“travel sector”) represents a potentially important and lucrative opportunity for its flagship brand: Tauri-Gum™. ABOUT TAURIGA SCIENCES INC. Tauriga Sciences, Inc. (TAUG) is a revenue generating, diversified life sciences company, engaged in several major business activities and initiatives. The company manufactures and distributes several proprietary retail products and product lines, mainly focused on the Cannabidiol (“CBD”) and Cannabigerol (“CBG”) Edibles market segment. The main product line, branded as Tauri-Gum™, consists of a proprietary supplement chewing gum that is both Kosher certified and Vegan formulated (CBD Infused Tauri-Gum™ Flavors: Mint, Blood Orange, Pomegranate) & (CBG Infused Tauri-Gum™ Flavor: Peach-Lemon). The Company’s commercialization strategy consists of a broad array of retail customers, distributors, and a fast-growing E-Commerce business segment (E-Commerce website: www.taurigum.com). Please visit our corporate website, for additional information, as well as inquiries, at www.tauriga.com Complementary to the Company’s retail business, are its two ongoing biotechnology initiatives. The first one relates to the development of a Pharmaceutical grade version of Tauri-Gum™, for nausea regulation (specifically designed to help patients that are subjected to ongoing chemotherapy treatment). On March 18, 2020, the Company announced that it filed a provisional U.S. patent application covering its pharmaceutical grade version of Tauri-Gum™. The Patent, filed with the U.S.P.T.O. is Titled “MEDICATED CBD COMPOSITIONS, METHODS OF MANUFACTURING, AND METHODS OF TREATMENT”. The second one relates to a collaboration agreement with Aegea Biotechnologies Inc. for the co-development of a rapid, multiplexed, Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) test with superior sensitivity and selectivity. The Company is headquartered in New York City and operates a regional office in Barcelona, Spain. In addition, the Company operates a full time E-Commerce fulfillment center located in LaGrangeville, New York. DISCLAIMER -- Forward-Looking Statements This press release contains certain “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 which represent management’s beliefs and assumptions concerning future events. These forward-looking statements are often indicated by using words such as “may,” “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” believes, “hopes,” “believes,” or plans, and may include statements regarding corporate objectives as well as the attainment of certain corporate goals and milestones. Forward-looking statements are based on present circumstances and on management’s present beliefs with respect to events that have not occurred, that may not occur, or that may occur with different consequences or timing than those now assumed or anticipated. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in forward looking statements due to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, such as are not guarantees of general economic and business conditions, the ability to successfully develop and market products, consumer and business consumption habits, the ability to consummate successful acquisition and licensing transactions, fluctuations in exchange rates, and other factors over which Tauriga has little or no control. Many of these risks and uncertainties are discussed in greater detail in the “Risk Factors” section of Tauriga’s Form 10-K and other filings made from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Such forward-looking statements are made only as of the date of this release, and Tauriga assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Contact: CONTACT INFORMATION Tauriga Sciences, Inc.555 Madison Avenue, 5th FloorNew York, NY 10022Chief Executive OfficerMr. Seth M. ShawEmail: [email protected]cell # (917) 796 9926Instagram:u/taurigumTwitter:u/SethMShawCorp. Website:www.tauriga.comE-Commerce Website:www.taurigum.com Public Relations: Tiger Global Management [email protected]
2020.09.10 19:34 blackjack_counterNFL: Let's talk about teasers
What is a teaser? For those unaware, teasers are a special type of bet that most books will allow on basketball and football games. There's multiple games on your teaser ticket sort of like a parlay, but the key difference is that you're moving the line several points in your favor. For example, the Chiefs are favored by 9½ tonight but you might be able to get them at -3½ on your teaser ticket. How much does a teaser bet pay? It varies by book. There used to be a time when 2-team, 6-point teasers on pro football paid at -110 odds. Unfortunately, it seems like -120 is more common to see these days. (Payouts will also differ based on the number of teams and points, but my focus is on 6-points.) Are all teasers equal? Certainly not. Notice that many football games end with a final score margin of between 3 and 7 points. For example in the NFL last year, 101 games out of 267 (37.8%) ended with a margin of 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 points.
Teasers that go through these frequent final margins are a better bet. Blackjack expert Stanford Wong suggested a strategy for playing teasers that said to only play underdogs of +1½, +2, or +2½ points (teased up to +7½, +8, or +8½) and favorites of -7½, -8, or -8½ (teased down to -1½, -2, or -2½). These so-called Wong teasers have had a 100-37 record in the last three years in the NFL. In comparison, teasers that go through zero (e.g., teasing -3 down to +3) have had a 76-64 record. Is that good? A 100-37 record is a 73.0% win percentage. If the teasers paid -110, then the threshold required to break even would be 72.4%. At -120, the threshold required to break even is 73.9%. In either case, the percentages are too close to say we've found a definitive pattern. Can we get better? A hot topic among Wong bettors is whether or not to bet underdogs of +3 points (up to +9). Let's break down the data even further and look at how the bets performed at each spread.
+1½ → +7½
+2 → +8
+2½ → +8½
+3 → +9
-7½ → -1½
-8 → -2
-8½ → -2½
-9 → -3
In the last three years, it seems like the underdog +3 has been a good bet and that underdogs in general have been pulling their weight better than favorites. Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)
Does it matter who is at home? There's some people that tell you not to tease road favorites, but the data hasn't shown that to be good advice in the last three years.
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3
Road dogs +1½ thru +3
Home dogs +1½ thru +3
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9
Road favs -7½ thru -9
Home favs -7½ thru -9
So what does this all mean? Honestly, I'm not sure. Right now, I don't have enough conclusive evidence to say that Wong teasers are indeed a winning strategy in 2020. Besides, all of this seems very data-miney and that makes me uncomfortable. I'll be using this year to track, in real-time, how these Wong bets are doing. For my tracking this year, I'll be counting underdogs and favorites separately. I won't be paying attention to totals or home/road splits. I'll be including underdog +3 in my tracking, so it probably makes sense to track favorite -9 as well. What are the Week 1 plays being tracked? I'll be using Bovada's closing number as the determining factor in whether it counts in my tracking or not. As of the time of this post, the Chiefs are -9½ tonight. If they come down to -9 by kickoff, it counts in my tracking. Otherwise, it doesn't. As far as Sunday and Monday games go, these are the plays that will be tracked according to the lines as of the time of this post. However, the final list may be slightly different since I'm using the closing number as the determining factor.
2020.09.08 18:51 jobventthrowawayHere is some heavy validation if you suspect that ATS algorithms and personality tests are BS
I'm reading a book called Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy by Cathy O'Neil. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weapons_of_Math_Destruction Chapter 6 is all about how this tech is applied to job searches and hiring. It confirms everything we know: They suck, they don't do what they claim to, and they are unfair. They also sometimes cross the line into illegal discrimination. Importantly, O'Neil points out that these algos etc are OPAQUE. You cannot crack the code by writing your resume just right. And you're not up against ONE algo, you are up against a countless number, probably a different one for every job you apply for. This issue alone may have counted for a substantial number of your rejected applications no matter how qualified you were for that job. I'll add my own commentary: I don't think we will see the end of this for a long while yet because I doubt HR departments and corporate leaders want to admit they've fucked up by using these systems and spending so much money on them. It's cold comfort but at least you stop fretting over tweaking your resume for the 1000th time. Edit: Well, here is an awful update. I looked up a young guy mentioned in the chapter, Kyle Behm. He found he was pretty much blacklisted from several employers by a personality test. His lawyer father started a class-action suit about this. This article (which seems to be a full excerpt of the chapter from the book) opens with a summary of the case: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/sep/01/how-algorithms-rule-our-working-lives I wanted to see what happened with the case and discovered that Kyle died by suicide about a year ago. https://www.legacy.com/obituaries/atlanta/obituary.aspx?pid=193829355 He had known mental health issues, but I imagine the experience of being blacklisted for minimum wage jobs did not help.
2020.09.07 19:04 Cryptolexicon"Empirically, we know that Women and Men are Violent at Roughly Equal Rates.": Debunking the Female Supremacist Myth of the Non-Violent Female.
Summary: Female Physical Violence against Men is an underreported reality. Data, Figures, Studies related to Female Physical Violence are systematically supressed by Female Supremacy Interest Groups, Researchers, Journalists. The view that men are responsible for the vast majority of non self-defensive physical violence (we are looking at you /Nametheproblem 👀👀) is grossly uninformed and ultimately dangerous. Those who cling to the idea that males are responsible for most non self-defensive physical violence (/Nametheproblem 👀👀) have been radicalized - these people do not like Logic (how easily they jump from the particular to the universal), Empirical Data (they ignore Empirical data that challenges their bias and threatens their World View) and have a tendancy to selectively use the media to reinforce beliefs they cannot let go of. The Female Supremacist (not the feminist, there is a difference... like Jordan Peterson said: definitions matter) holds onto a Core of unfalsifiable beliefs, beliefs which cannot be proven wrong (Men are Evil, All Males are rapists, All males are potential pedophiles, etc). The Female Supremacist avoids Empirical Data which would force her to reevaluate the validity of her belief system. Let us explore Female Violence together, an idea we collectively struggle with. "SAPERE AUDE" - Have the courage to use Your own Reason. Let go of preconceived ideas about violence and dive in the Data. Ongoing thread. https://preview.redd.it/47zcx33qbrl51.jpg?width=423&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f5fc0943fa2cbcbc2e541b8aaeb7ed7bd2820c5e
"Feminists had, for the most part, been reluctant to discuss violent women, for the very real fear it would undermine the hard-won battles secured by the campaigning and activism resulting from women’s victimisation." (Emma Milne, Jackie Turton).
"In many ways, we turned a blind eye to many women’s use of violence, their drug use and alcoholism, and their often harsh and violent treatment of their own children." (Ellen Pence, Duluth Model Creator)
"This discourse can be politically subversive in that it requires overcoming fixed gender stereotypes with a redefinition of ordinary femininity as aggressive and potentially harmful." (Daniella Bandelli, Female Violence in Italy: an emerging discourse of Heterosexuality).
"Over 200 studies, mostly in Euro-American nations, found about the same percent of women as men physically assault marital and dating partners. Tabulation of 24 published studies in male-dominant (MD) nations and the results for university students in 32 nations found that, regardless of the level of MD, about the same percent of women as men assaulted a partner. Moreover, the more MD the nation, higher rate of assaulting a partner by women (r=.41). " (M. Strauss, Assaults By Women On Male Partners In Male Dominant Nations: Preliminary Tests Of An Explanatory Theory).
Image Source: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/male-domestic-violence-victim-i-never-imagined-something-like-this-would-happen-to-me-10105586.html Empirically, we know males and females (worldwide) admit perpetuating non self-defensive minor violence (pushing, shoving, slapping) at equal rates. Additionally, well conducted large-scale empirical studies state that males and females (worldwide) admit perpetuating severe violence (severe violence can result, for example, in broken bones, lacerations, large bruises) at equal rates. [-**Straus, Murray A. (2008). Dominance and symmetry in partner violence by male and female university students in 32 nations. Children and Youth Services Review 30( 3): 252-275** Also: -Whitaker, Daniel J., Tadesse Haileyesus, Monica Swahn, and Linda S. Saltzman (2007). Differences in frequency of violence and reported injury between relationships with reciprocal and nonreciprocal intimate partner violence. American Journal of Public Health 97( 5): 941-947. -Black, Michele, and seven co-authors (2010). The National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey: 2010 summary report. Atlanta, GA: National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, at p. 43-44. -Wilson, Margo and Martin Daly (1993). Spousal homicide risk and estrangement. Violence and Victims 8( 1): 3-16. -Hines, Denise A. and Emily M. Douglas (2011). Symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder in men who sustain intimate partner violence: A study of helpseeking and community samples. Psychology of Men & Masculinity 12( 2): 112-127. - Dutton, Donald, Tonia L. Nicholls, and Alicia Spidel (2005). Female perpetrators of intimate abuse. Journal of Offender Rehabilitation 41( 4): 1-31. + too many to include here] 78-80% of all violence is minor (there are no visible injuries) while 20-22% of violence is severe (This is calculated using data from two Bureau of Justice reports: Rennison, Callie M. and Sarah Welchans (2000). Intimate Partner Violence. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, and, Rennison, Callie M. (2003). Intimate partner violence, 1993-2001. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics). Violent females tend to have aggressive personalities and/or conduct disorder. What are the reasons Females commit acts of violence? Anger (68%), to gain attention (53%) and retaliation (49%). https://preview.redd.it/4ucd8plubrl51.jpg?width=281&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c758aac5db1cf4023a239a5c228412b49b9877b2 ...
Olga Sterlyadeva confessed to murdering her husband Alexander as he slept. Olga hit his neck twice with an ax, cutting off Alexander's head. Then Olga used a chainsaw to cut up Alexander's body, which she used as fertilizer in her garden. Olga was angry because she thought Alexander was cheating (Stewart, Will (2018). Russian wife decapitates her husband with an axe and 'uses his body as fertilizer for her courgettes." Daily Mail, Jul 20 2018).
Ilham Cahyani asked her husband Dedi for his cell phone password. He refused to give it so Ilham poured gasoline on Dedi and lit him on fire. Dedi suffered an agonizing death over the next two days (Malm, Sara (2019). Wife burns her husband alive in Indonesia after they argued when he refused to give her the password to his phone. Daily Mail, Jan 17 2019).
A pet store CCTV recorded Ms. Lee throwing a puppy against the wall when the owner refused to give her a refund and take the dog back. The dog suffered a brain hemorrhage and died the next day (Aldersley, Miranda (2019). Woman kills puppy by throwing it against a wall at South Korean pet shop when they refused to give her a refund. Daily Mail, Feb 14 2019).
Tanyatorn Ghanjanasak used multiple cell phones to threaten to kill her ex-husband, a soldier in the U.S. Army. She also cut his brake lines and somehow was able to poison him. She admitted doing all this in multiple text messages (Shaffer, Josh (2018). 'The poison was me... dumb ass': Doctor threatened to kill her soldier husband in ominous texts. Stripes, Aug 11 2018).
Tami Huntsman admitted starving, torturing and murdering two children she was caring for -- age three Delylah and age six Shaun (Vankin, Jonathan (2016). Tami Huntsman: Mom charged in horrifying torture, murder of two small children will face death penalty, weeps in court. Inquisitr, Aug 18 2016, and, McPadden, Mike (2018). Tami Huntsman pleads guilty to torture-murder of niece and nephew, gets life. www.investigationdiscovery.com, Sep 26 2018).
Jessica Warrent lied to police saying her daughter Armani hit her head while playing. An autopsy showed the cause of death to be a lacerated liver and other injuries from a severe beating. Jessica later admitted she lied to police, confessing that she beat her young daughter to death. What was baby Armani's crime? She couldn't stop wetting the bed (Baker, Neal (2019). Evil mum beat daughter, 4, to death with belt because helpless girl wet herself. The Sun, Mar 18 2019, and, Unattributed (2015). Warrants reveal dead NC 4-year-old suffered lacerated liver in alleged beating. Fox 8, Oct 16 2016).
Amber Hall recorded herself beating her 22 month old daughter so badly that the toddler had to be put into a medically induced coma. The baby sustained permanent brain damage and has to use a feeding tube to eat. The video shows the toddler's hands were bound and tape was put over her mouth. Lawyer R.J. Larizza said: "The videos are beyond disturbing, they enter the realm of a child's most frightening nightmare." (Pleasance, Chris (2018). Mother who beat her 22-month-old daughter so badly she now has to use a feeding tube is sentenced to 40 years in jail." Daily Mail, Sep 16 2018.
Jordan Worth beat and abused her boyfriend, Alex Skeel. She then starved him. She tried to finish the job with a knife. Police found Alex almost dead, laying in a pool of blood (Christodoulou, Holly (2019). Blood everywhere: Moment starved boyfriend, 22, is found '10 days from death' in pool of blood after abusive girlfriend slashed him with a bread knife. The Sun, Feb 18 2019).
Luisa Cutting butchered her best friend, stabbing her 30 times. Covered in blood when police arrived, Luisa said:"Arrest me... I killed her." (Alexa Cannon was found dead with a butcher knife sticking out of her mouth (Griffith, Keith (2019). 'I killed her': College student, 21, 'stabs her best friend 30 times with a butcher knife' and greets cops covered in blood in the apartment they shared. Daily Mail, Jan 25, 2019).
2020.09.02 17:12 throw_a_way_50Colonial Pipeline Gasoline Leak in Hunsterville - Information Session Detail
For anyone concerned, there has been an ongoing gasoline leak on Huntersville-Concord Rd. in (not far from Exit 23 on 77). Its very serious and hasn't been getting the coverage it needs. I live nearby (using a throw-away account because I don't want to associate my regular account with where I live)and one of my neighbors provided the detail below from an information session which was held last week. The biggest takeaway to me is that the pipe line owner, Colonial Pipeline, is not expected to be held accountable in any real way and it doesn't seem like there will be improvements made to prevent this from happening again.
Colonial Pipeline, based in Atlanta, GA, runs a gasoline pipeline along the East Coast of the US from Texas to Pennsylvania. The pipeline carries gasoline and was installed between 1963-1964. It goes through Huntersville.
On August 14, two teenagers riding their ATV discovered the spill and called 911. Colonial Pipeline stated they have state-of-the-art detection systems, which did not detect this gasoline leak..
Colonial Pipeline does not know how much gasoline was spilled, but they estimate around 63,000 gallons. They did not specify how did they get to that figure,
700 tons of soil were removed from the affected site, which happened to be the Oehler Nature Preserve, a 142 acre preserve along Huntersville-Concord Road.
Colonial Pipeline has had 26 gasoline spills in NC since 1983.
Government agencies stated they would keep CP "accountable" but as long as Colonial "cooperates" they do not plan on giving any fines.
Colonial representative: Greg Glaze gave vague, blanket answers that did not clear the matter or committed to anything.
The only Huntersville Town Commissioner present at the meeting, Lance Munger, asked whether Colonial would be setting up a fund to pay back all the local agencies for the costs incurred, which at the moment will be paid with the residents' tax dollars. The answer was that Colonial will only be asked to pay for the Fire Department.
The underground aquifers have not been affected yet, but it is too soon to tell, as it will take a long time for gasoline (or anything) to seep through the layers of the soil and get to it. Heavy rains may affect the way the gasoline seeps into the soil and/or whether it washes onto North Prong Clarke Creek
The pipeline doesn't have any apron or protective sleeve that would prevent another leakage from spilling gasoline into the soil, nor do they have plans to repair it that way and avoid a future spill.
For public relations purposes, they prefer the term "releases" instead of using leaks/spills
Several attendees expressed concern with the gasoline getting into their well water. Andrew DiCistofaro, an Environmental Special form MEck Co. said that it is too early to detect an impact on well water. When Colonial was asked if they would pay for well testing, Colonial's reply in an email to a neighbor was that "impacts are limited to within a couple hundred feet of the release site. Colonial continues to monitor and test these areas and if future data suggests the need to sample additional supply wells, C will address those well at that time".
For now there is weekly surface water sampling.
Per the EPA: under 1 part of billion is the allowed amount of gasoline permissible in drinking water. It is unknown how much, if any, is in the current Huntersville spill.
2020.09.01 17:38 IncentiveSolutionHow Online Reward Programs Help You Build a Communication & Marketing Powerhouse
Although it’s often been deemed daunting, intrusive, and inevitably budget-depleting, marketing, and communication continue to be critical elements to a company’s success. They are frequently considered necessary evils, and while this feeling is present across countless industries, including the building industry, it doesn’t have to be that way. Allow me to allay some of those negative connotations. Easy-to-use technology like online rewards programs can streamline and simplify some of the challenges you face in B2B marketing. What Is Your Marketing and Communication Objective? Marketing and communications can be simple. You just have to think of two essential entities: • Your objectives • Your people Sound deceptively easy? It’s not. First, you have your objectives. Increasing sales and brand awareness are two of the more common objectives in the building industry, especially since it often involves a vast or hard-to-reach sales channel. You want more consumers to buy your construction materials from distributors and building contractors. Who Is Your Marketing Plan Targeted Toward? Take a moment to envision the figurative “box” that those involved in an organization are continuously encouraged to think outside of. Inside of the box are: • The rules • The norms • The figurative “wheel” that many do not want to reinvent Outside of the box? Us. People. Nothing abstract or over-strategized, just people, including: • Your employees • Your consumers • Your contractors • Your distributors and dealers • Your peers When thinking outside of the box, think of those who have the most influence over your success and bottom line. They are the ones you need to reach out to, the driving force necessary to meet your objectives. How Does an Online Reward Program Help? Creating a custom-fit loyalty reward program is an effective tool to tap into this driving force, and in the end, everyone wins! Reward program providers like Atlanta-based Incentive Solutions is in the business of changing behaviors by showing appreciation for productive habits. Online reward programs create or enhance organizations by inspiring modifications that yield results. In most cases, regardless of program type, the monetary results outweigh the dollars put in. Incentive Research Foundation studies have concluded that, when implemented thoughtfully and backed up with data and clear objectives, reward programs increase performance by up to 22%. Advanced reward technology allows you to choose from a growing list of plug and play features based on your individual needs. Unique reward program technology allows you to tailor your company incentive programs to your corporate objectives and to your audiences. The benefit? You are only paying for what you need. Another plus? One program can reach thousands. Why Do Online Reward Programs Work So Well? Online reward programs act as reward systems and instantaneous mass communication tools in one. They allow you to announce sales promotions and product updates to your channel partners, for instance. When your B2B partners have more information about your brand, they’re more likely to become vocal about your products. They have a stronger, more meaningful connection to you. Rewards, recognition, and engagement create hype. They inspire others to do more and work hard, thus meeting and/or surpassing targeted goals. They make people talk, and when they talk, they do so positively and emphatically. People and word of mouth is the best advocate any company can count on. You see, we are all markers and communicators and by nature. When we like and believe in something, we strive for it, we do it, we share it, and we live it. Building a cost-effective communication and marketing vehicle through a loyalty rewards program creates a self-fulfilling business cycle, and in the end, everyone gains from it.
2020.09.01 10:44 Turttleman17Gameplay guide for WoWs Legends, by Turtle part 2
Hello everyone, you can find first part of this guide here and without any unneeded talks, we will go to the point of this one. I will try to sumarize as many tips about all three clasees currently in the game, so you have bit easier time playing, but rest will still be up to you, I am just trying to help with bit of basics, so you have easier start than me back in the day. Disclaimer: all strategies and tips here probably require few attempts to preform right and possibly small modifications by you depending on your skill level/playstyle and most importantly, try out things your self, this is just to make your start easier. Enjoy!
Learn to read map properly, look on it all the time, while you are not in the combat and try to remember positions of enemy ship, when you get into fight, you will have at least bit of image, where are the enemies and you can just passively dodge and focus on the fight. Another thing, check the player list in each game, if enemy team has division and you spot one member of it, there is high chance that others are there aswell, so play bit more cautiously on that flank. Note: your map awareness will get better by playing, though Twist´n ´track and Intuitive can help you to get bit more better map awareness in DDs/CLs, though don´t focus on it too much and try to guess locations of enemy ships based on events, which happened in games you already played or just make blind guess, you never know.
I am not going to write down any magic combinations, but few general rules, that I folow are:
if you are in BB or DD, ping allied DDs, so they know you are with them
if you are in DD, politely ask for support and say thank you
don´t ping enemy three times, rather ping him once or twice and say thank you
when asking for inteligence data, ping ally, that can give them to you and say thank you(it´s still just three commands)
Be kind to allies and maybe they will actually be useful and don´t forget to ping get back, when someone is doing something stupid, maybe he learns :D
spotting for team
Ammo selection HE: against other DDs(splash damage will break modules and HE won´t overpen unlike AP), against cruisers and against superstructure of BBs. AP: against broadsiding cruisers(water line up close, bit higher on longer ranges), battleships (casemates, bow and stern) and against Tashkent(this is only DD from my experience, that´s thick enough to arm low caliber DD AP shells) General tips
don´t torpedo targets sailing away from you
don´t chase enemies and stick to objectives
try to spot enemy DD for your team
use your concealment, don´t rush blindly from behind the island
If you get into gunfight with other DD(even, if you are playing IJN DD, they have guns aswell) and if there is no immediate way for you, how to disengage, just turn away from enemy DD and start kiting away and shoot it down, while having pretty easy time dodging their shells. If you are spotting enemy DD without being spotted feel free to don´t shoot and just hope, that teammates will damage him a bit before you engage
Cap contesting and island play
I will be honest, each cap is slightly different , but there are multiple rules you should follow everytime, when you are trying to get the cap and I noticed, that there is one very common island placement for caps, so I will make small breaktrough of it. General rules:
have an escape route ready
count with worst possible scenario everytime
launch torps on routes, where you usally catch DD and torp smokes
How to use islands properly Islands have two main meanings for DDs, you can easily disengage thanks them and drop spot and they can give you upper hand, if you manage to rush enemy from behind them, but on the other hand, they can cost you your precious HP pool, if you beach or are caught in front of them and limit your maneuver options. Note: hydro, radar and plane can spot even trough islands, but shells can´t always fly and hit you, if you are behind island, so don´t panic Islands and caps I prepared image for this one, but you can everytime approach cap on reverse, if you want, so if something messes up, you just sail away as fast as possible, but picture shows some non reverse capping possibilities. https://preview.redd.it/5tn97ybiuhk51.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=03297499bbe218434695384aebf12f948a78e48e
and 3. represents safe routes for the cap with good option to disengage
is big no no, in fron of island you can sail just in straight line and are extremely easy target for enemy
if you get to spot enemy DD and it get´s damaged either by you or teammates, try to kill it off, DD is dangerous even with 1HP
Smoke and hydro/radar interaction
Almost every DD in the game has smoke, so it would be good to know, how exactly it works. Smoke blocks line of sight and when you are in it, you are rellying almost only on the spotting from your teammates. I said almost, everytime, when ship shoots, when it is hiding behind or in the smoke, it is visible from certain distance* and if it is spotted standard rule of 20 seconds applies after it shot and it will dissapear. *around 2.3km for DDs, 5.5km for RN CLs, 7k for cruisers, 14km for BBs If there is no one, who can spot for you, you can shoot at enemy before smoking up and if they shoot, they will be spotted for awhile and after they dissapear you can try to blind fire them. Only way, how you can get vision from inside of smoke is to use hydro or radar(or enemy gets 2km away close to you and gets proxi spotted, but that´s usually something very unpleasant) and in case of German and British DDs you can spot ship hiding inside of smoke and start shooting at it without being spotted, I call this smoke/hydro combo. How to get it to work? First check hydro range of your DD (3.5km for RN and around 4km for KMS), locate enemy DD, try to bait out smoke of it and charge it or just charge (make sure to don´t charge into crossfire from enemy team) it and use your own smoke.
wearing down enemies with damage
Ammo selection: HE: against BBs and DDs and angled cruisers AP: against broadsiding cruisers, against weaker armored parts of BBs at mid to short range* *because we don´t have armor viewer yet, feel free to shoot only AP as cruiser in the AI matches to learn, where to shoot BBs to get pens on them or just experiment in standards when the game is won. General tips:
be cautious in first few minutes of the game
if enemy uses damage con, set them on fire
don´t be worried to kite away
never sail in front of an island
Art of surviving and damage farming
Cruisers have advantage of better concealment in comparison to BBs and you can use this advantage to get into better spot before you start shooting(unless DD spots you). This allows you to flank enemy, but please make sure, that if you flank, it´s worth it. After you shoot, you are visible from your max range and if you get spoted, it will stay like that for 20 seconds(Lemonier can shorten this time) and you can use this knowledge for one very annyoing strategy(especially good with HE, that hasbig firechance, for example IJN one). Right away after BB shoots, you shoot one salvo at it and if there is nothing too close to you, you will simply dissapear before the BB reloads. This strategy comes hand to hand with forcing out of damage con from BBs. Usually when you set one or two fires, BBs use DMC, after 10 seconds feel free to shoot HE on it, so long so it burns, after that you can either keep shooting or just simply disengage.
Kiting in general is sailing away from enemy and wiggling around, so enemy has hard time hitting you. One big mistake, which many players do, is that they kite so long, that they get themself out of combat. Additionally you can play with speed to make it even harded for enemies to hit. For example go at 1/4 or 1/2 speed and when enemy shoots just speed up and make them miss, though don´t use it more than two times in a row, sometimes enemies adjust their aim.
Support team with consumables
Cruiser usually come equiped with Hydro and Fighter plane, you can use these to help your team pretty nicely. Hydro: hydro spots enemy ship at around 4km and torps at around 3km distance and you can use this to screen for your allies against torpedoes or spot enemy ship hiding behind island/inside of smoke. Note: you rember how I said, that ship in the smoke is basically blind, just stop shooting while rushing it, hydro spot it and let allies to land few hits on it before you open fire, so you limit the time you can get torpedoed as much as possible. Plane: Planes mostly helps to spot BBs and cruisers hiding behind islands, thanks the fact, that planes ignore islands, wait for first enemy to get spotted and after a while, feel free to launch plane. Though there is one downside to plane, is circling around your ship, so when you launch it, enemy knows that there is ship somewhere there, so don´t launch plane in situation, when you want to ambush someone. Radar: If you find yourself playing cruiser, that has radar, you should try to stay near the caps, let enemy DD to cap around 50 to 70% of cap and then acirvate radar, reset it and effectively make him waste 30 or so seconds of the game with pointless attempt. Try to ping cap and requesting support and maybe some teammates will get a clue, that you are doing something.
breaking enemy positions
damaging priority targets(DD, CA, BB should be your list of priorities)
Ammo selection: HE: against angled targets and DDs AP: against cruisers, broadsiding BBs and turrets/superstructutre of angled BBs, if you can´t overmatch them General tips:
use islands to limit amount of enemies, that can shoot
take advantage of broadsiding targets
keep moving, stationary BB is extremely easy target
don´t be scared to take damage(though no pintlessly please)
Creating of crossfire
Usually, when you see BB charging full spee ahead you just laugh, because you know, it´s going to die and sometimes, there is that one BB that dismantles your whole flank with one simple maneuver, how is it possible? On the image you can see two situations, let´s see the difference between them, because in both of them there is one ship pushing, but results in real match would be very different. https://preview.redd.it/4857rmqkuhk51.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=17c52f742c4ca4e0203e412ac7b3bcb92e473f9f Situation A: allied BB is pushing from behind the island and attacking enemeis from the side, forcing them to angle against it, while teammates should start taking advantage of this situation. She can easilly stop next to island with ability to reverse back to safety, even pure existence of treat is enough for enemy to start doing mistakes in many cases. Situation B: allied BB goes forward, getting into crossfire of three enemy ships and dies, effectively throwing it´s HP pool pointlessly away Everytime when trying to make breaktrough in enemy line, draw imaginary line between your ship and eney ships and then do the same with your team and enemy ships, if those two creta angle bigger than let´s 30 degrees and your team seems like willing to push(you can ping requesting support, players usually support me, when I am effectively creating crossfire like this) you are good to go, if the angle is smalller, rather wait for better oportunity or for ally in better position to make a move(though it´s rare it can happen)
How to operate in the area with DD
Well, I hope you played enough games in DDs, because that´s most important part about. Best thing you can do to make torpedoing you as hard as possible, change speed, do slight turns to the right and left and make use of islands. Best way, how you can improve your maneuvering is to play DDs, because you know, when you have easy time to torpedo enemy and when not.
How to deal with cruisers
I am really surprised, I need to write this(and sad part is, that no one, who needs to read this, won´t), but well here we are. If you ever played cruiser, you know what´s your favorite thing to see, BB sitting in the open, so how to avoid this? Well, you remember image above, that´s pretty much it, use islands to limit amount of enemies, that can shoot and arument, that there are no islands is easily compensated by something so smart as repositioning to other side of map or just wait for team to do something and just keep maneuvering around. Additionally everytime, when you see cruiser being shot by someone else feel free to take a shot at him, each bit of damage counts after all. And how to deal with fires, if you get set on one, well wait for at least one more and after being set on at least two fires try to use your damage con, so you "catch" as many salvos from enemies during it´s duration. Note: if you die to fires and damage a lot, consider running Firefighter and Master mechanic
This is just game, so most important thing is to have fun, but everytime, when you die, try to look on the reason, why did you die, so you can avoid that mistake next time. Other thing, that comes really with games played is situational awareness in the hectic, expecially close quarters situations, just keep calm head in those. If you have some topics you would like to learn more about feel free to ask me on the Wednesday in the Ask the Turtle thread, here or DM me, thank you for reading this, Turtle PS: link to my channel, where I am uploading some weekly compilations with some tips(still can´t figure out, what´s worth noting in BB, so give me few weeks to hord some BB clips): here
2020.08.30 16:35 hallach_halilFantasy diamonds for 2020
https://preview.redd.it/k4qs3l2pg5k51.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25b7421d2ef3ec043dc670d01b3d28e9eee2be8c Now that we are close to a lot of people’s fantasy drafts, I wanted to hand out some names that I frequently end up with when I do mocks, just because I have them higher in my rankings. So these are players, who present value based on their ADP (average draft position), all as an average between the three biggest platforms for fantasy football – NFL.com, ESPN and Yahoo. That’s as of August 20th, with the first two having a full-PPR scoring system and the last one being set to .5PPR. They also all have a standard lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 FLEX, 1 TE, 1 DEF and 1 K. I had to wait until now, so that the draft data is representative of what people actually think of these players, especially with so many mocks having the majority of users set as auto-picks and distort the results. So I will talk about what I like about these players heading into 2020, maybe a couple of concerns and talk a little bit about what I look at them as, compared to the where people are selecting them in their mock drafts. I listed three guys for every position that fills one spot in your standard lineup (QB, TE, DEF) and five for running back and wide receiver respectively. Oh, and I’m not doing kickers here – just pick one from the high-scoring team and that you know has a proven track record of converting on his opportunities. Here are some of my favorite value picks: https://preview.redd.it/8ju88dnrg5k51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=41cfe8bb0deb4bcf44b29e0355e72359017b52fc
Tom Brady ADP – 79.57 (QB9) This seems weird to put a name here that is discussed as probably the greatest of all time and who hasn’t been on my radar as a fantasy option for a long time (especially since I usually pick my QBs very late), but I think there has never as much value with Tom Brady as this upcoming season. TB12 was QB12 last season with a broken-down Julian Edelman, who led the league in dropped passes, to go with a former first-round bust in Philip Dorsett, an undrafted rookie in Jakobi Meyers and a Mohamed Sanu, who looked like one of the worst in-season acquisitions of 2019, as the three next-most productive receivers, combining for less than 1000 yards. To go along with that he had what looks like a bad first-round choice in N’Keal Harry and the league’s least productive tight-end room. Now he is in Tampa Bay, where they have the premiere receiving duo in the game with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, a three-headed monster at tight-end, some interesting backs and pretty much a push as far as the O-line goes, while playing for a coach that is much more interesting in pushing the ball downfield. While having to learn a new system after two decades of being in New England and knowing every little intricacy about it will be a challenge no matter how long you’ve been around the league, just the sheer improvement in weapons and the increased chances to go down the field make me believe he will finisher multiple spots higher than he did in 2019. Brady has gone up quite a bit these last few weeks, but at the end of the eighth round, I think he is still a value pick. I personally have him about a round higher than that and when I do mocks, where I have my two starting RB and WR spots, my flex and one of each on the bench secured, this is a guy I end up with on quite a few occasions – even though this usually is the earliest I think about picking a QB, if nobody just falls right into my lap. Daniel Jones ADP – 139.50 (QB20) A name that already was controversial at the time of the actual draft and seems to be a little controversial in this discussion as a fantasy option as well is Daniel Jones. While there are some concerns, that I will get to in a second, let me give you some numbers. In terms of average points per start (12), only ten quarterbacks put up better numbers than Jones did last season. His 18.98 points in those starts were better than what Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or Kyler Murray were able to put together. He had three different games with 4+ touchdowns and no picks (Lions, Jets, Washington) and you can’t overlook his effectiveness as a runner. Jones missed out by five carries to reach that 50-mark, but among the ones who did, he would have finished behind only Lamar Jackson with 6.2 yards per rushing attempt. He put up all those numbers despite having a banged up Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram being out for most of the time and getting sacked 38 times on 459 attempts. Now, he was highly inconsistent as a rookie, with those three games of 28+ fantasy points and not reaching 15 in any of the other contests, and his ten fumbles lost not only limited his opportunity to add to the scoring, but also directly lowered his total in the end. With that being said, I still think the offensive line will be better than it was a year ago and Jones’ top five options in the passing game will be healthy at the same time, at least for the start of 2020, which was never the case in year one for him. There are some guys like Darius Slayton, who I expect to break out in his second season, and while new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett will build on the run game, he could also involve his QB more in that area, similar to what they did in Dallas with Dak Prescott for the last few years. Drew Lock ADP – 146.43 (QB23) Before I talk about any of these numbers – the sample size for Drew Lock as a rookie was pretty small. He started the last five games of 2019 and averaged 13.6 points a week, with three games right around that number and two outliers – a 24-point affair at Houston, when he threw 3 TDs in the first half alone in an upset victory, and a 6.6-point blunder in a snowstorm at Kansas City. That is not necessarily something to get super-excited about and I don’t love some of the hype Lock has been receiving this offseason, but it doesn’t yet reflect in his fantasy ADP. The highest he is ranked on any of these platforms is 22nd (ESPN). While he did already have Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant as a rookie, the latter despite being the most productive rookie tight-end, heavily fluctuated with his weekly output, putting up 159 combined yards in two of those weeks and 19 combined in the other three. He will likely take another step, when you look at the history of the position. And now you replace DeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick, who caught just 53 percent of the targets their way and averaged 6.2 yards per targets, with two stud rookies. Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy was my top-ranked receiver in the draft and create a dependable target due his highly advanced route-running and Penn State’s K.J. Hamler opens up the offense with his blazing speed, while being a nightmare to tackle in open space as part of RPOs for example. Even though Pat Shurmur didn’t last long as a head coach for the Giants, I still like what he can do for a young quarterback, in terms of forcing the opposition to defend the entire field and running more spread looks, which Lock is used to from college. Something Lock had issues with in year one is not accounting for roaming defenders, who didn’t have anybody in their area to cover, which will get better with having more people out on the route. And most importantly, I hope he gets encouraged to give his receivers chances down the field, which he was hesitant to at some point as a rookie. Others options I like: Baker Mayfield (ADP 141.07; QB19) Jared Goff (ADP 144.82; QB23) Teddy Bridgewater (ADP 147.62; QB24) https://preview.redd.it/eccs2thzg5k51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a125404f49a59370f76ddf1f456831b1c13ca31
Jonathan Taylor ADP – 70.12 (RB24) There seems to be a split between Jonathan Taylor believers, who watched him dominate college football and think he will take over this Colts backfield, and the ones who think he will be in a committee with Marlon Mack or even like scat-back Nyheim Hines to take on a larger role. Count me as a believer. If I told you there was this running back, who rushed for almost 6200 yards and 50 touchdowns in his three years in college, runs a 4.39 at 225 pounds and was selected in the second round by a team that doesn’t have a long-term answer at quarterback on the roster and could have used some of the edge rushers or corners that went off the board in that range, which role do you think he will have? Marlon Mack is a really solid back and I was actually higher on him than most people coming out of South Florida, but this kid from Wisconsin is special. Last season Mack rushed for 1091 yards in 14 games, yet all but 500 of them came before contact. He finished third in the league in terms of time behind the line of scrimmage at over three seconds and his 4.4 yards per carry, running behind what I believe is the best offensive line in all of football, isn’t overly impressive, plus he has missed at least two games in all three years in the league. There are two concerns for me when it comes to Taylor. First, he didn’t contribute much as a receiver in college, but as a junior he more than doubled his previous output, catching 26 passes for 252 yards and an additional five TDs, while catching the ball pretty natural at the combine as well. The much bigger one is fumbles, as Taylor put the ball on the ground 18 times throughout his time with the Badgers, while Mack didn’t do so once on 261 touches last season. Some of that may have to do with carrying he rock 926 times overall, but that is definitely something to monitor. If he can take care of the ball, even if he doesn’t stay on field on passing downs a whole lot (needs refinement as a protector). I believe he will absolutely be a finalist for Offensive Rookie of the Year, because he has explosiveness, power and big-play ability to make a lot of noise. David Montgomery ADP – 71.64 (RB26) I already talked about Montgomery as one of my breakout candidates for 2020 (LINK). So you can read up on what I like about his skill-set there, but now let’s look at the situation this guy is in. While the Bears doesn’t blow you away with stars all over the field, but they do have one of the most underappreciated receivers in the game in Allen Robinson and another young guy in Anthony Miller, who could be used as a fly sweep threat to bind defenders or as the target on RPOs who will benefit from aggressively flowing defenders in the box. It is a little concerning me that, despite losing Kyle Long, the only addition they made on the offensive line was Germain Ifedi, but they didn’t have Long for three quarters of 2019 either. I think having second-round pick Cole Kmet as your true Y tight-end will help get the Bears backs to the edges at a higher frequency and I think the Matt Nagy offense will be stress defenses more with different personnel sets this season. Most important, Chicago did not add a single running back outside of undrafted free agent Artavis Piece this offseason and I expect Montgomery to take away some of the opportunities Tarik Cohen got last season, who averaged a miniscule 4.7 yards per touch, despite having 79 receptions. So they may use Cohen more as a true slot receiver, but at 5’6”, 190 pounds soaking wet, he will not run as much in-between the tackles (3.3 yards per carry) and Montgomery obviously will get all the goal-line work as well. The second-year back was a missed-tackle machine at Iowa State and when Nagy did allow him to gain some momentum without a defender getting hands on him before he could even cross the line of scrimmage, this guy showed some signs. He can make those subtle adjustements and cuts to not allow defenders to square him up and has the size to break tackles. He is a that I end up with a lot in the middle rounds. Raheem Mostert ADP – 77.58 (RB27) Somebody I was concerned with a few weeks ago, when he asked for a trade and I thought even if he stayed wasn’t on good terms with San Francisco, is Mostert. Now that they have sweetened the pot for him a little bit and he seems to locked in, I think him going in the 8th to 10th round make no sense. Mostert is coming a playoff run, in which he rushed for 336 yards and five touchdowns over three games, but people seem to forget that he also averaged 5.6 yards per rush during the regular season – second-highest behind only Lamar Jackson among players with 100+ attempts – and scored a touchdown every 15th time he touched the ball. Maybe the craziest statistic for Mostert is that in the ten total games he received double-digit carries, only once did he average less than 4.8 yards per attempt. If you look at the offensive line, not only did they their two starting tackles a combined 86 percent of the offensive snaps and I think a healthy Trent Williams could actually be a significant upgrade over what I saw from Joe Staley last year, but they also get starting center Weston Richburg back, who went on IR after week 13. Kyle Shanahan’s offense still goes through the rushing attack, where he is the very best at creating issues for the defense and stacking plays together, and that will be even more apparent without Emmanuel Sanders gone and probably missing Deebo Samuel for a few games early on. The one concern for me is that the Shanahan’s have always had at least two-back systems and there are capable players on that roster, with old friend Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon hopefully finally healthy after he got a big deal from San Fran two years ago and at least one more of the young guys. However, from week 12 on, when he gashed Baltimore’s number-five run defense for 146 yards, Mostert led the team in rush attempts and yards all but once and he has established himself as the top option in my opinion. J.K. Dobbins ADP – 112.92 (RB38) Another rookie that I think gets doubted because of the situation he is in is Dobbins, even though people look at it the wrong way. The Ravens just set a new all-time mark in rushing yards with 3296, which had stood for over 40 years, What people fear about grabbing anybody outside of the top two contributors is that they made up for 72.4 percent of their rushing production over the 15 games they played. However, not only do I believe that number to drop, but even then there were 218 carries left on the table for the rest of the squad. Quarterback Lamar Jackson actually led Baltimore with a QB-record 1206 yards on the ground and while he has shown that he is just a different breed in terms of not even allowing defenders to touch him in one-on-one situations and never showed any weakness getting up after a hit. I think it is very enthusiastic to believe he repeats those 176 carries. The top running back Mark Ingram also had an outstanding season, including 15 touchdowns, but he was on the field for only 45.6 percent of the snaps on offense and now on the wrong side of 30, it’s safe to assume he will give up some of that workload, especially considering there was no special talent on the roster to demand those chances. At the very worst, Dobbins should be able to replace what Gus Edwards did last season and that was worth over 700 rushing yards, averaging 5.3 yards a clip. But this kid was a 2000-yard workhorse at Ohio State last season and I had him as my number two back in the draft, thanks to his combination of explosiveness and strength, while having great ball-security fundamentals. He is a perfect fit in that zone-read heavy offense from shotgun, which he basically played in last season with the Buckeyes and another dual-threat QB. I would not be shocked if he emerges a few weeks into the season and ends up leading this team in rushing. Antonio Gibson ADP – 141.61 (RB50) If you are looking for a really deep sleeper, either if you are a zero-RB advocate or you just have your roster filled out already and just try to grab the player left on the board with the most upside, I think this is a name that has to be on your radar. Antonio Gibson primarily lined up at slot receiver for Memphis last season, but he was most effective taking handoffs and slicing through defenses that way. The explosion he has, the long-speed and that contact balance to bounce off hits are all on a different level to most backs in the league. Now, he has only really run two plays when in the backfield – power and stretch, mostly with another back on the opposite side of the QB in split sets – but he seems to have a natural feel for the position and he can do so much more for an offense. I believe Gibson will be a swiss-army knife for new offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who will move him around the formation, get him the ball on jet sweeps or as a decoy off those or create mismatches with slower defenders, as he comes out of the backfield. I was already pretty high on him, despite having an RB room that went five or six names deep at that point, because I believe he could be on the field for the majority of snaps anyway, thanks to his versatility, but now that Derrius Guice was let go due to some off-the-field stuff, the rookie is even more intriguing to me. When you look at who Washington is bringing back, their leading rushing from 2019 is a 35-year old Adrian Peterson and the next-closest guy is QB Dwayne Haskins with 101. And when you look at receiving yards, after the clear leader in Terry McLaurin, the next two names are RB Chris Thompson, who left in free agency, and Kelvin Harmon, who recently suffered a season-ending injury. So the offense is bound to improve and Gibson should have plenty of opportunities. That is golden for a running back around the 50s. Other options I like: Cam Akers (ADP – 93.32; RB32) Jordan Howard (ADP – 113.18; RB37) Zack Moss (ADP – 131.88; RB47) https://preview.redd.it/vsd9i9r6h5k51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=589f0bd382f4fa2bbbd40c4d88204348ff1cf05e
Calvin Ridley ADP – 50.08 (WR17) I’m pretty sure not a lot of people know Calvin Ridley was a top 15 fantasy wide receiver last season based on average points per game (15.2) in non-PPR leagues and top 18 in the two other formats as well. He averaged 9.3 yards per target and converted 47 of his 63 receptions into new first downs, despite his longest catch going for only 36 yards. He is more of a deep threat than that (especially of double-moves) and I would be shocked if he doesn’t have at least one 50-yarder this upcoming season, while also being an excellent red-zone receiver ever since coming into the league. Julio Jones is still the number one receiver on that team and I think the best as an actual player at the position in the world, but the Falcons want to take some pressure off him with Ridley. Atlanta’s top candidate for their WR3 role is Russell Gage, who had a fairly productive second season, but almost half of his yardage total came in the four games he started in place of Ridley. So he will not demand a target share in the same region as Mohamed Sanu, who the Falcons traded away mid-2019. While a lot of it is about Austin Hooper leaving town and I will talk about his replacement in the tight-end segment, this team has by far the highest amount of vacated targets from a year ago at 258. I would not pick guys like Cooper Kupp or Keenan Allen ahead of Ridley and while I have him right around that range among receivers, I have this guy about ten spots higher in my overall rankings, which a full round later in those stages of a draft presents excellent value. I thought the Falcons number two could make that Juju Smith-Schuster jump in his second season, but with injuries that might have just been postponed things by one year and we see less of a difference between him and Julio’s numbers in 2020. I think you can book Ridley for a 1000 yards and around double-digit TDs. Stefon Diggs ADP – 65.81 (WR25) This is one I don’t understand at all. Stefon Diggs “only” finished last season as the WR24 in full-PPR formats (18th in non-PPR), but he was within ten points of the guys that own the six spots above him, while missing one game. That was for a Vikings team that finished with the fourth-lowest pass play percentage (51.7%) and was in the bottom-six in terms of plays run per game (60.5). While Buffalo didn’t pass the ball at an immensely higher rate (about four percent more), they finished top ten in plays run, as they switched to a more up-tempo, 11 personnel attack – and that was without having a true number one and in the process not an ideal two. Diggs finished last season with the second-highest yards per target (12.0) and third in terms of percentage of his team’s air yardage, as the premiere deep threat in all of football. The one real concern here is that Josh Allen was one of the worst deep-ball thrower statistically last season, completing only 24.1 percent of his passes travelling 20+ yards through the air – dead-last according to Pro Football Focus- With that being said, a lot of that had to do with not having that guy, who can create separation vertically, with John Brown not showing that extra gear to gain a step on his defender and nobody else on the roster to average over eight yards per target with at least 15 grabs. Allen is still obviously not the most precise passer in the NFL and he has even more room to grow as a decision-maker at times, but having that guy who can streak downfield on go and post routes – especially in the mold Minnesota used him last season as that backside target on bootlegs – will open up the offense in a major way and Brian Daboll will encourage him to let it fly a few times each week to just let the defense know they need to account for it. I know I’m higher than pretty much anybody, but Diggs is my WR14 and a mid-fourth round pick for me. Terry McLaurin ADP – 70.93 (WR26) A second-year receiver I like a whole lot is this guy from Washington. McLaurin was phenomenal as a rookie. He went for 919 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, despite missing two games and being part of one of the very worst passing attacks in the entire league. His quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a really rough rookie campaign, completing only 58.3 percent of his passes for just over 150 yards per game and the same amount of touchdowns as interceptions (seven). So obviously a lot of this will come down to how much that guy can grow coming into his second season and how that will influence his top target, who he already had built up plenty of chemistry with at Ohio State before joining the same team in the pros. I personally had a top-20 grade on Haskins and think he will make a big jump now that he is in better shape and had a full offseason to watch tape and hopefully be able to work through progressions more quickly. He simply wasn’t ready when thrown out there last season and had a brutal welcome to the NFL. However, even if Ron Rivera decides to go a different route with who lines up under center at some point, the offense should be much more beneficial for the young star receiver. Last season, Washington finished 30th in neutral situation pass rate and 31st in pace, while the Panthers with Scott Turner calling shots were fourth and fifth in those respective categories. Now as the new offensive coordinator in the nation’s capital, I expect this offense to be much more wide open and McLaurin will be his new version of D.J. Moore in that attack, who went for almost 1200 yards in 15 games last year. Right now this kid is going anywhere from the sixth to the ninth round, depending on the platform you use, and I think he should be a fourth-rounder, simply because of the changes offensively and the fact he is their clear-cut number one option. Marvin Jones ADP – 111.03 (WR39) One of the most overlooked receivers this year to me is Marvin Jones. This guy is going between wide receiver 36 and 42 depending on the platform, despite having finished 15th in average fantasy points in PPR-formats last season. Now, he has missed ten combined games over the last two seasons, but in the three years prior he missed only one total game and the last time he played a full 16 contests (2017), he led the league with 18.0 yards per reception. Since coming to Detroit, Jones’ average receptions per game have gone up every single season and over these last three years, he has scored half a touchdown per week. Obviously Kenny Golladay is and will remain the top target in that offense and you would assume the chances for second-year tight-end T.J. Hockenson will increase, already because he was a top-ten pick alone, but Jones also caught passes from Jeff Driskel and David Blough over his final five games rather than the uber-talented Matthew Stafford, during which he averaged 18 yards less per week. While Detroit used their second-round pick on another running back in D’Andre Swift (Georgia) and the offense will be built on the rushing attack, number 11 will frequently be the target off deep play-action and the Lions really only have three relevant receivers on that roster. So at this point, Jones is going as a low WR4 at best and I personally look at him as a nice flex option. Grabbing him a round later than a guy like Julian Edelman and using that other pick for like a high-upside rookie back or maybe a QB/TE you like in that range makes a lot of sense to me. I really like him as a fallback option if you go RB-heavy early on and you only have two dependable receivers on your roster at that point. Diontae Johnson ADP – 125.54 (WR43) I had several candidates to choose from for this final wide receiver spot, but in the end I went with the guy I think could be the best of the bunch and will receive the biggest boost in quarterback play. Diontae Johnson quietly hauled in 59 passes for 680 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie. That was despite the ball being thrown by Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, who combined for just 186.3 passing yards per game (31st in the league) and tying for an NFL-low 4.5 air yards per completion. This year the Steelers get Ben Roethlisberger back under center, who led the league with 5129 passing yards in 2018 and even at 70-80 percent of himself should be a major upgrade over the two guys, who are clearly on the lower end of backup material even. I recently talked about Johnson’s skill-set more in detail and said he was be breakout candidate(LINK!!), because I saw start-stop quickness to win as a route-runner, how slippery he is to put a hand on that punt return ability he displays with the ball in his hands, with the feel for where defenders are coming from. He already made some huge plays as a rookie, often times catching the ball a few yards short of the sticks on shallow crossers and finding a way to convert for his team. Pittsburgh does have Juju Smith-Schuster as the primary target and I believe he will bounce back in a major way, James Washington came onto the scene last season and they also brought in another receiving weapon in flex tight-end Eric Ebron to go with another second-rounder receiver. However, I think Johnson could easily be one of the more productive number two guys for his respective team and at the very least a nice matchup play for your flex spot. Even if he somehow ended up repeating his output from a year ago, he was still the WR39 in PPR formats. If you take that as a baseline and think what Big Ben could do for him, just putting the ball out in front on some double-moves, that could be a great pick in the double-digit rounds, especially considering he led all receivers in separation, according to Next Gen Stats. Other options I like: Darius Slayton (ADP – 128.30; WR45) Mecole Hardman (ADP – 130.83; WR45) Jalen Reagor (ADP – 142.32; WR53) https://preview.redd.it/bk77o09eh5k51.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2c8fdc08ec8366b7397bb45e4e942309c302291
Hayden Hurst ADP – 124.06 (TE13) If I could only choose to tell you about one player in this entire breakdown, this might be my guy. The Falcons just lost Austin Hooper to free agency, after he put up career-highs in targets (97), receptions (75), yards (787) and touchdowns (6). Because of that they spent a second-round pick to acquire what basically was the Ravens’ TE3. That alone tells you how much they wanted him, since they could have used that selection in the draft to address some other areas of need or grab another one in the draft, since only one was off the board at that point. Not saying he isn’t worth it, but that is rare compensation for a player who is third on a team’s depth chart and has barely cracked 500 receiving yards to go with three touchdowns through his first two years in the league. With that being said, Hurst is a former first-round pick and someone who Baltimore actually selected ahead of reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson. The speed, feel as a route-runner and physicality after the catch put the former South Carolina standout at the top of my tight-end board as well and I’m guessing that’s where the Falcons had him too, So based on pure talent, you can argue that he and Hooper are basically at the same level. What makes this guy so intriguing as a value pick for me is the offense he has landed in. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is famous for heavily involving the TE as a volume pass-catcher on stick and hook routes underneath, but also allowing them to work down the seams, where Matt Ryan had a lot of confidence, putting the ball to the back-shoulder of Hooper, who could shield it with his body and come down with the catch. When you look at the target rate of these two guys, the difference is enormous, as Hooper averaged 7.5 looks per game compared to only 2.4 for Hurst in his second season, while the latter averaged almost a full yard more per target. I love this guy as a low-end TE1 as my 13th pick or so of the draft. Jonnu Smith ADP – 147.77 (TE21) While I know it isn’t overly exciting, purely based on receiving yards, finishing 18th at your own position would make me think you get drafted higher than 21rd, but that is the most simplistic and least interesting case for Jonnu Smith. Let me talk you through a couple of other things instead. Of just 45 targets over the 2019 regular season, Smith caught 35 of them for 439 yards and three touchdowns. That left him tied for ninth among all players in the league at 10.0 yards per target and his 8.3 yards after the catch on average was the second-highest number among tight-ends, behind only George Kittle, who is obviously in a different stratosphere. While Tennessee is trying to run it back with a strong offensive line and a battering ram in Derrick Henry behind it, to go with shots off play-action, the Titans last season were 30th in plays run and they had the third-lowest percentage of pass plays (51.2). Those numbers are likely to go up at least a little bit with a more capable passer in Ryan Tannehill being under center for a full season and opposing teams likely selling out to stop the run. So that should result in more opportunities for Smith, who despite seeing a low target share, finished seventh in yards per route run among TEs last season. If you combine his targets with the ones of Delanie Walker until he got hurt, who is now out of the picture for Tennessee, that lands him at 75, which – while I know it doesn’t quite work that way – would result in 732 yards and five TDs if you simply multiply it with the numbers he actually put up on 45 looks. This guy is close to undrafted in a lot of leagues and with the way he started being used down the stretch – streaking downfield more and even taking some handoffs for big gains as a true running back – that gives you a high-upside TE2. Please take him over a second defense or whatever you may think of at that point of your drafts. Jack Doyle ADP – 148.51 (TE23) This is a name that I seem to have a weird fantasy crush on, but when you really look into it, it makes some sense. Doyle may not blow you away statistically, never having reached the 700-yard mark or surpassed five touchdowns in his seven-year career, but he is a very good all-around player, who is on the field all the time. We all remember when Eric Ebron went off for 750 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2018, but a lot of that was thanks to Doyle going down with an injury, since he had been on the field for 81.7 percent of the snaps as long as he was healthy, When he put up career-highs the year prior, he logged over 90 percent of the snaps, and while he wasn’t as effective last season as a full-time starter, he did average over 10 yards per catch and converted two thirds of his catches into first downs. That was with Ebron on the roster and being more of a downfield target, while Doyle was responsible for the dirty-work in the run game and even as a pass-protector. Now, I know the Colts signed Trey Burton this offseason, but he had just 84 receiving yards and no TDs over the one half of 2019 he was available for and should be much less likely to steal targets from what I think is the clear TE1 in this offense still. While yards per target, yards per route run and all those statistics are great to predict what can happen, the one relevant fantasy factor before anything else is how much a player is on the field and I don’t see why Doyle wouldn’t be out there for 80 percent of their offensive plays again. Indianapolis was in 12 personnel 26 percent of the snaps last season (sixth-highest in the league), so even if Burton re-emerges to some degree, this should hold true. And with Philip Rivers coming in, who checked it down to his backs more than any other QB in the league last season, I could see some of that share to going to Doyle leaking out late or curling up over the middle. Other options I like: Mike Gesicki (ADP – 137.23; TE15) Blake Jarwin (ADP – 150.07; TE23) Chris Herndon (ADP – 150.37; TE25) Defenses in the comments! If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/08/26/fantasy-diamonds-for-2020/ You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXmJv442hvg&lc=UgxNqkHDOD0Sd5qIGVp4AaABAg&feature=em-comments
Account of the Second American Civil War by Theater
The Nuclear Situation
A sequence of highly time-dependent actions would define the nature of nuclear weapons use during the Second American Civil War. An attack on Dakotan satellite control systems through numerous avenues would prove successful. On-the-ground basing infrastructure was destroyed, control over satellite systems secured by the MAU and Sierra, backup C2 structures like Cheyenne Mountain Complex laid low by cyberattack, and cyberattacks on the Dakotan nuclear command structure employing numerous strategies ranging from jamming to deepfakes providing contradictory orders all provided a crucial time window necessary for Sierran and MAU bombercraft to deliver a counterforce strike meant to permanently disable Dakotan nuclear capabilities. Almost everything proceeded perfectly. Overwhelming advantages in preparation, cyberwarfare, strike capabilities, and ABM systems provided a tremendous cushion. However, even with communications ruined 2 targets were hit by a single missile each - not the only missiles loosed, but the others were successfully intercepted. Fresno and Corpus Christi have been destroyed. Naturally, targeting civilian populations was far from the knockout blow or message that Dakota may have hoped. If anything, the news would only demoralize Dakotan forces in the subsequent war. And now they were totally without deterrent
Lots of civilians. Many manage to evacuate. Many others do not.
The Allegheny Gap
Dakota deploys their Northern Group to defend against a hypothetical offensive from the Northeast into the Ohio River Valley. Low expectation of this sort of assault was reflected in the relatively low concentration of force around Allegheny National Forest, but MAU B-21s destroying infrastructure and inventory at Wright-Patterson AFB and Grissom Air Reserve put this hopeful assumption to rest. The formal beginning of the conflict was with reports of these strikes to Northern Group command in tandem with a chain of failed cyberwarfare operations: deepfakes of the MAU president (quickly recognized as such), deepfakes of military leadership injected into Dakotan communication networks (also dispelled), and attempts to saturate Dakotan comms with worthless chatter. Shortly thereafter, the MAU's Gold Company would quickly push the Dakotan Northern Group's defensive position, aided by overwhelming air superiority. Local air superiority over the Northern Ohio River Valley was quickly secured as the Gold Company enjoyed substantial advantages on the tactical level, moving and reacting almost as if Dakotan battle networks and data was openly available to them. Additionally, in a particularly consequential act of cyberwarfare the MAU was able to either disable or turn many LAW-1 "slaughterbots" against Dakotan forces. Additionally, well-equipped MAU forces had the advantage of modern exosuits and extensive anti-drone countermeasures. While unable to fully crumple the Northern Group line, both Cleveland and Columbus were seized by the Gold Company. The Northern Group has fallen back to the husk of Wright-Patterson AFB and the outskirts of Cincinatti, garrisoning Southwestern Ohio.
Extensive drone patrols within Kentucky and preparation of the bridges crossing the Ohio River placed the MAU's Red Company in an overwhelming defensive position, particularly given the rapid attainment of local air superiority in the Northern Ohio River Valley and high levels of mechanization in both Red and Gold Companies, compared to the Dakotan Northern and Center group. Additionally, MAU B-21s successfully disabled Scott AFB, Offutt AFB, and facilities at several IAPs hosting National Guard aircraft. This allowed for Red Company's air contingent to expand the area of air superiority to the entire Ohio River Valley after a pitched battle with Dakotan aircraft (with support from Gold Company F-35s and F-22s). Tactical and operational advantages reaped from MAU cyberwarfare continued to do serious work on the ground, permitting Red Company from capturing the far bank of the Ohio River after defending and then crossing the Big Four Bridge. The Center Group fell back to Cincinatti after forced from Indianapolis by Red Company, squeezing the Center and Northern Group together and leaving much of the Upper Mississippi River Basin undefended - though diverting too far in that direction (towards St. Louis) could have left the Red Company's back exposed to a combined counteroffensive from Dakota's Northern and Center Groups. Many Center Group F-35s remain undamaged, meaning that while Dakota has been outflanked, it could still be difficult to fully defeat the cluster of forces sandwiched between Red and Gold Companies.
With the Northern and Center companies forced together, one "breakout" line remains, that being towards Lake Michigan. Following a huge spate of anti-government protests in unoccupied Indiana and Illinois, however, Superior initiated an offensive seeking to take advantage of anti-Dakota sentiment and the relative lack of defense in the area. The Battle of Chicago would prove highly taxing, allowing Red Company enough time to capture Indianapolis. Nevertheless, MAU bombing paved the way for a sweep through Northern Illinois. That said, Superior granting the MAU access to their airspace permitted them to launch a series of knockout blows against most important AFBs in the Midwest. Additionally smoothing Superior's offensive was the destruction of numerous military installations by unknown partisans. MAU airstrikes had not targeted many such sites, and they could have firmed up resistance by pro-Dakota militias or loyalist National Guard.
Superior: 965 infantry, 2 M1A1 SA, 10 M1127 Stryker RV, 8 M-ATV, 1 HH-60M Black Hawk.
The South, Part 1: Setting the Stage
At face value, higher numbers of concentrated Dakotan infantry in the South seem to offer at the very least a serious quantitative advantage. That said, these numbers disguise an array of factors that should change things considerably, remain relevant in every engagement, and should be stated up front so as to avoid repetition. To begin with, MAU cyberwarfare has lent their companies a serious advantage on the ground, both by disabling thousands of Dakotan drones (slaughterbots being the most notable) and obtaining crucial live data that the armies of the 2030s use to orient themselves and make rapid tweaks to their operational activities. Next, the bulk of the MAU's air force has been pitted against Dakota in the Southern Piedmont and the shear bulk of MAU 5th generation aircraft represents an enormous edge in air superiority across the states that Dakota is endeavoring to penetrate. Both sides are experiencing serious anti-war movements in border states, imposing roughly equivalent political challenges. Operating in urban environments is made all the more difficult for these protesters, whose upset originated in online movements. Finally, MAU efforts to convince Dakotan soldiers to defect have been remarkably successful - attempts that were compounded by an extremely harsh and unpopular order to execute all prisoners of war. With most slaughterbots disabled or turned against Dakotan troops, this task fell on the shoulders of the rank and file - making MAU promises that much more tempting. This battery of factors will be largely consistent across the following sections addressing the conflict in the South.
The South, Part 2: The Gulf
The naval battle in the Gulf of Mexico would prove consequential in deciding whether or not Dakotan divisions that had been swiftly transitioned into regional groups and companies would actually become available for the operations to which they were assigned. Just prior to this engagement, a strategic strike from both bombers and submarines would target Dakotan basing infrastructure and air defense systems in Southern states. A huge SEAD campaign in tandem with use of extreme standoff weaponry permitted the MAU to dump a tremendous inventory of munitions into Dakotan Patriots and AFBs. Near absolute advantage in naval assets allowed the MAU to dispatch the Dakotan navy in the Gulf shortly thereafter with minimal losses. Strikes against Dakotan airfields severely reduced the efficacy of the Southern Defense Group, permitting an MAU MEU from securing a beachhead, attracting the attention of the (much reduced and poorly mechanized) Dakotan Quick Response Team. With local naval and air support, a large portion of the Dakotan coast was captured. Dakota's Quick Response Team is held up in lower Louisiana, a benefit to the ongoing operations in the Piedmont, but a barrier to the MAU's stated goal of securing the entire Dakotan coastline. An attempted uprising in Louisiana has been rooted out thanks to Quick Response Team presence, but their control over the area remains precarious.
As the Dakotan Northern Company began a relatively perilous journey into Virginia, the MAU's Green Company would take advantage of the Quick Response Team being pinned in Louisiana and the lack of fully-mobilized forces in Tennessee to cut the state in half. In doing so, Green Company severed supply lines for the Northern Company paralyzing the already poorly-mechanized force in the middle of hostile territory. Northern reinforcements would soon arrive create a grinding battlefield outside of Norfolk. This has left the Northern Company disconnected from the rest of Dakota in an area where the MAU maintains air superiority
The Battle of Atlanta would appear to be relatively pivotal, but the real conflict would be between the Southern Defense Force and Companies Green, Blue, and Black. The conflict was kicked off by the MAU capture of several Dakotan agents who had attempted to infiltrate MAU bases across the South. Almost immediately, Dakota's second Southern Company entered Georgia and proceeded towards Atlanta, and at the same time Blue Company moved to seize Montgomery and Birmingham with support from Black Company which had moved into Southern Alabama. The Quick Response Team was still stuck in Louisiana up against MAU Gulf superiority and 4 MEUs. With support from Green Company out of Chattanooga, the Southern Defense Force found itself fully routed at Birmingham and forced to fall back into Mississippi. The MAU had prepared Atlanta for a tremendous Dakotan offensive, and their Southern Company remained tied up in the metropolis while a series of engagements in Alabama proceeded to cut off their supply lines. While Atlanta is largely controlled by Dakota, like their twin in Roanoke they are stranded in enemy territory. Airspace is somewhat contested, with the MAU maintaining an edge, but Alabama has almost entirely fallen. With the Green Company pin in Tennessee, it is difficult to imagine a successful out for either Dakotan Company. As a final unpleasant surprise, Dakotan LAW-3/4 drones have been hijacked by the MAU, flying deep into MAU territory and surrendering themselves.
While operationally sophisticated, the Sierran offensive would meet practically no resistance. Nearly the entirety of the Dakotan military had been shifted towards an offensive posture in the more densely populated East, allowing Sierra to travel through much of the West relatively uncontested after a protracted bombing campaign. Despite the relative ease of the Sierran push, boxing in Dakotan forces would go a long way in reducing their options, making some sort of retreat into the Great Plains impossible. After an air campaign even more devastating than the MAU's in the East (thanks to a near-complete lack of resistance), the ground campaign, composed jointly of FRA and Sierran troops commenced. Operations Right and Left Hook forced remaining National Guard forces and any garrisons to regroup and retreat as quickly as possible and into Iowa, Eastern Kansas, and Arkansas. Meanwhile, the FRA's push into Louisiana has brought it into contact with MAU MEUs near the Alabama border. The Quick Response Team has been fully cut off from the rest of Dakota. A broad thrust into Oklahoma and Arkansas has succeeded in further pushing retreating Dakotan forces, though northeast Arkansas remains within control of Dakotan forces. Overall, the Western coalition has made tremendous gains thanks to a huge redirection of Dakotan forces to the East. That said, control over these states will be difficult to consolidate given their vast area, the expected size of stay-behind operations, militia activity, and generally unfavorable attitude towards invading governments.
Sierra: ~3% attrition [ground forces] (approximate numbers because there are no Dakota numbers) /FRA: ~2% attrition [ground forces] (approximate numbers because there are no Dakota numbers) /Dakota: ~10% attrition, fully pushed back (approximate numbers because there are no Dakota numbers)
2020.08.28 17:36 UsedToLurkHardMatchmaking Analysis: Data points from 101 games played between August 11 to August 18.
Sheet link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR1_s1mkvaNFw9J0pC5WT-dc3xdKaqMr-K8PwLa9mh7oVaI8OmbiFQEcNk4vyQe9kIHoGO2CyoajLfz/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true This project was started in an attempt to try to make sense of matchmaking and such (objective important, kill ability, etc), as well as some statements that I've seen floating about here or there, and to fairly objective about the results rather than biased. I have no doubt that Skill Based Matchmaking exists, but I wanted to see to what extent it would affect me over a period of time. I've seen a number of honest gripes about the system that I can agree with, but also high occurrences of experiences beyond my own, such as suddenly being put into extremely high skill lobbies having played a high K/D game immediately prior, or the statistical relationship between specific skins or ranks during a season and high player skill, as well as the overarching thought that SBMM forces a specific range of K/D, like 1 or 1.5 and so on. Oddly enough, my overall KD has seen a small but steady rise over time; I can't tell if SBMM is more influenced by wins or kill death ratio, but both are higher than my average during this period. I doubt I am immune to the effects of SBMM, but prior to these matches I did not find myself feeling like I was being punished for playing well (worse teammates maybe, but I chalk that up to the worst team member simply having a bad match; it's not impossible for the worst player of one game top or near top frag the next within the same lobby). Following the results, I remain unsure; outside analysis would be welcome. Prior to this, I would say that I prefer Connection Based, but have no special qualms against Skill Based. I am simply unsure as to the extent and severity it can affect matches, given the fairly wide range of consequences noted here and on other sites. Hopefully this data can put the above into tangible terms and points. My own findings are comparatively narrow and almost mundane, as opposed to posts and comments elsewhere. All of these games were played on Core, on PC using Mouse and Keyboard, and I generally ran Specialist rather than Killstreaks. I took a screenshot of most of the games played (missed out on 3) and recorded the last 9 to better review the happenings of a game (which are uploaded to youtube for review, links in the sheet). The missing data (that I didn't screenshot) were instead found on CoD Tracker, which had similar data, but for some reason only shows personal stats rather than the teams as a whole. Unfortunately, this means I am unable to show the results of either team in these matches, only my own post game stats. I also recorded the primary weapons with which each game was played, as well as special caveats (reasons why I would be using them) for some of them. Beyond simply attempting to win games, secondary objectives were generally focused on weapon leveling (as with the ISO and AN-94), as well as weapon camos (hence the AMAX and Grau usage). As for base game guns, I achieved Damascus some time before the start of this experiment, so any base guns used are either for daily challenges or simply out of comfort (primarily the M13). I don't consider myself an especially good player, but I believe I played to the best of my ability in most of these games (aside from obvious screwing around like knifing people, which I still put down accurately). Accordingly, I can safely say that I don't think I did badly enough, at a frequent enough level, to cause a reverse boosting effect in order to participate in easier lobbies. 75 out of the 101 were also matchmade solo, in case grouping with my friends had an influence on the difficulty of the lobbies. I kept those matches in to keep the data pure, but the results at the end will show wins and losses total as well as solo. Ways I could have done this better would probably involve recording the weapons used within a match beyond my own, such as what is killing me, or my track record against each person who lands a kill on me, etc. M4s and MP5s were somewhat prevalent, from memory if not from data, but standout slayers using them were less common. Deadly weapons in the hands of good players, but nothing too special with an average player. Inversely, I saw a number of very good players use less meta weapons to terrifying effect against me. Oftentimes the cracskshot with the Kar would perform better than the M4 user, and possible far better with a meta weapon in their hands (as seen in game 96, where a pair of enemy snipers had multiple times more kills than the team's best M4 user). More than anything, I'd say that players are more random than adhering to any win at all costs attitude. Some games would essentially be 2 players out of 6 on both sides actually on objectives, and 3-4 on both sides attempting to slay out to varying degrees of success. A guy with a lot of kills but no Hardpoint time is clearly an excellent distraction for the enemy team and an immense help, someone with 8 when a team is at 200+ points and no time on point is not as good of a contributor, for example. Back to weapons; the M4 and MP5 are meta for a reason, but I did not feel like I was at a disadvantage experimenting with other guns, except when faced with clearly exceptional opponents. A very important statistic that I realized should probably be scrutinized and recorded would have been the prevalence of drop outs and drop ins; a number of the matches had both, and I daresay that the odds of losing a game is much lower when you can build a significant lead by causing a group of 2 or 3 on the enemy team to quit out for greener pastures, allowing a lot more map control and risky gunfights for those remaining until the team fills later (or not at all). Of course, the inverse is true. I am unwilling to say I am the deciding factor in any game I play; I rely on teammates, good or bad, in a variety of ways. Merely having more bodies on the map is a benefit, they influence spawns, provide more distractions to the enemy, chip damage, random saviour or avenger kills to help in maintaining objective, etc. Another would be to track cosmetics: while I am skeptical of their impact, there is vocal evidence in other threads on this subreddit that specific skins and calling cards are indicators of skill. The Nuke card is one, of course, as well as the new mastery challenge cards, but from my personal experience the CDL skins are not. Some of my hardest games that were pretty much stomps against me were highlighted by Atlanta Faze calling cards, but the same calling card and character skin has also been found on far less threatening opponents. I am unsure how this would factor in to the data gathering. I believe that the skins can be simply purchased in the in-game store; while skilled players who are more into the game and wish to support their team have definitely bought them, there appears to be no barrier to skins other than the monetary kind. I personally think it would be ridiculous for my own skill to suddenly shoot up upon purchasing one of the CDL packs, but perhaps intimidation is a factor on its own. Thankfully, my method of data gathering allows me to show the data on rank influence. I've seen assertions that rank is an indicator of skill; I look at it more as one of time played, which may or may not directly translate to skill. On this subject, my data shows 51 instances where the top scorers of either team were also the highest ranked players, out of 202 samples. Again, as I see rank as an indicator of time played rather than skill, I remain confused by comments to the contrary. Certainly in past CoD games I have seen the opposite sentiment, in line with my own, that most of the time Prestige level is just a number and the player behind it could be good or bad; why is it different in this title? The fact that rank does not decrease, as with true skill or Elo systems, except when everyone resets for the season, means that it is unlikely to be an indicator of skill. The existence of xp tokens and double xp weekends also casts doubt on the correlation put forth by others between skill and rank. Getting Damascus for me was more a matter of perseverance and a bit of luck than me being especially good at the game; there is no way for me to gain negative progress, but also no way to guarantee enemies will call in killable streaks for those damn launcher challenges. Looking back at the sheet, I remain unsure on the more extreme detriments. Certainly, I match into games where I perform badly, possibly as a result of MM throwing me into a high skill lobby. However, there are a number of lost games were I do well, and won games where I don't do as well as I could. One caveat would be extremely high skilled players. I can definitely see SBMM screwing them over by giving them lesser skilled teams to carry because of their stats for even games, as this creeps into my own games, despite me not being especially good. There are problems with SBMM due to its nature, but I found that the matches were generally fair, with mostly close games or semi-stomps, and curiously mostly in my favour rather than against me. I feel that more data from others would also help complete the picture; the extreme lobby seesaws mentioned by others may indeed be happening, myself simply somehow avoiding most of it.
2020.08.27 23:38 AnIolairGhormSkilled Atlanta Players: Yea or Nay whether to take IFHE after the rework
IMPORTANT CORRECTION Thanks to u/tmGrunty for keeping me honest, the fire reduction is much more substantial. Prior to the rework, IFHE reduced the fire chance on the Atlanta by 1%, not 2% as I've stated in my original post below. This means the fire chance with IFHE dropped from 4% before the rework to 2.5% after the rework, a 38% reduction. This would average about three fewer fires per 200 main battery hits, which is much more material. The penetration benefit isn't an issue when top-tier, but when uptiered, it negative impact is more pronounced, and with the increase in uptiering of tier-VII ships, this become more material. Bottom line is that IFHE is simply very situational now. A top-tier Atlanta is probably fine with IFHE, but when uptiered, IFHE is a critical dampener on her actual DPM. ORIGINAL POST I'm looking for concrete, well-formed data to explain what skilled Atlanta players are observing with regard to impact of the IFHE changes on her after the rework. If there's an existing post on Reddit that scientifically covers this topic already, I apologize for overlooking. TL;DR: Saying "fire chance cut in half" and "reduced HE penetration" is nebulous. Based on the actual and relatively modest impact of the IFHE rework to the Atlanta's shell parameters, it's difficult to rationalize how IFHE was treated as unquestionably beneficial before the rework and then suddenly rejected as wasteful after the rework. What's really going on? Does more regular uptiering of tier-VII ships have more significant impact here than the IFHE change? -- A common refrain I hear, even from knowledgeable, well-known members of the community, is that the IFHE changes introduced this year severely impacted the Atlanta. However, I'm unconvinced based on looking at the actual differences in the ship parameters (details below). The changes of IFHE on the Atlanta's shell parameters are actually relatively modest, and not so severe to explain why IFHE seemed unquestionably useful (and almost a necessity) before the IFHE rework and then unquestionably a waste after the rework. I personally suspect that more regular uptiering of tier-VII ships has a greater negative impact on the Atlanta's performance than the IFHE changes themselves. That is, simply being uptiered cramps the Atlanta's capabilities, putting more emphasis on the need to set fires since IFHE (old or new) offers little benefit. (The same argument for not taking IFHE on the Smolensk.) BEFORE AND AFTER PARAMETER DETAILS
The Atlanta's base HE shell parameters (without IFHE) are 21mm penetration and 5% fire chance.
Before the rework, IFHE reduced the base fire chance to 3% (5% − 2%) and increased HE penetration to 27mm (127 / 6 × 1.3).
After the rework, IFHE reduces the base fire chance to 2.5% (5% / 2) and increases HE penetration to 26mm (127 / 6 × 1.25).
With regard to penetration, the main loss from the rework is not being able to penetrate the 27mm surfaces on some upper-tier cruisers (USN and German heavy cruisers, etc.). The 25mm surfaces on mid-tier battleships—prime farming ground for IFHE-based Atlantas—were buffed to 26mm as part of the IFHE rework, so they remain vulnerable. With regard to fire production, a reduction of fire chance from 3% to 2.5% represents a ~17% overall impact (which can be offset with DE and signals). Looking at the binomial distribution, that's one fewer fire per 200 shell hits, which might mean one or two fewer fires per game. While a more significant impact, does that fire reduction actually offset the benefit from the increase in alpha from IFHE? I agree that the IFHE rework negatively impacted the Atlanta; I'm not questioning that. What I don't follow, however, is how IFHE after the rework is viewed with such poor favor even though the parameter chances really aren't that significant. If you made it this far, thanks for reading, and I look forward to feedback.
2020.08.25 15:11 Economic_impact_raceScience Discussion Series: How do redlining, poorer performing schools, lack of access to resources and the physical environment contribute to inequity? We’re experts on the economic and social impacts of race - let’s discuss!
Race impacts our experiences and opportunities in the world. Where we live and how we are perceived by those around us informs the realities we must navigate. For example, redlining was a process of marking neighborhoods where people of color could buy or rent homes in contrast to areas marked with green that were deemed “safe” for white families. The racial segregation of American cities was not accidental. Redlined areas had poorer access to safe housing, good schools, reliable transit, healthy foods, and good jobs. Inability to rent or purchase in better areas meant many families of color were denied access to improving their lives. This formalized racism began in the 1930s and was outlawed 50 years ago but we still see the legacy and informal continuation of this policy in housing and differential access today. Research suggests redlining is a significant contributor to the racial wealth gap. Join us to discuss how these inequalities in the built environment impact people today and what policies and solutions might help address these issues. As mentioned in a previous announcement post, the moderators of /science have worked in collaboration with the moderators of /blackpeopletwitter and /blackladies to create this series of discussion panels focused on race in America. These panels will be led by subject area specialists including scientists, researchers, and policy professionals so that we can engage with multiple expert perspectives on those important topics. A list of the panels, guests, and dates can be found here. Our guests will be answering under the account u/Economic_impact_race. With us today are: Bios: Richard Rothstein: I am the author of The Color of Law: A Forgotten History of How Our Government Segregated America, and a distinguished fellow of the Economic Policy Institute (EPI). I am also the author of other books and articles on education and race, available at my webpage at the EPI site. I’ve also helped to produce a free 17-minute animated film, Segregated by Design, appropriate for high school students and adults, that describes the origins of segregation in racially explicit public policy. Sarah B. Schindler: I am the Edward S. Godfrey Professor of Law and Associate Dean for Research at the University of Maine School of Law. I am the author of Architectural Exclusion: Discrimination and Segregation Through Physical Design of the Built Environment, published in the Yale Law Journal. I teach and write about property, land use, local government, and real estate law. My research focuses on the sometimes amorphous line between public and private space, and the ways that the built environment functions in exclusionary ways. Lisa Rice: Lisa Rice is the President and CEO of the National Fair Housing Alliance (NFHA), the nation’s only national civil rights agency solely dedicated to eliminating all forms of housing discrimination. Lisa has led her team in using civil rights principles to bring fairness and equity into technologies used in the housing and lending sectors. Ms. Rice is a member of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights Board of Directors, Center for Responsible Lending Board of Directors, JPMorgan Chase Consumer Advisory Council, Mortgage Bankers Association's Consumer Advisory Council, Freddie Mac Affordable Housing Advisory Council, Urban Institute’s Mortgage Servicing Collaborative, Quicken Loans Advisory Committee. She also serves on the Bipartisan Policy Center Civil Society Advisory Council on Artificial Intelligence and FinRegLab Machine Learning Advisory Board. Natosha Reid Rice: Natosha Reid Rice currently serves as the Associate General Counsel for Real Estate and Finance at Habitat for Humanity International, Inc. where she initiates and manages financing programs and strategies to generate sources of capital that enable Habitat affiliates to provide decent, affordable housing to families throughout the country. In addition to her work at Habitat, after serving as an Associate Pastor at the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church, Natosha also serves as the Minister for Public Life at All Saints’ Episcopal Church in Atlanta, GA. Through her work as an attorney and faith leader, Natosha works to provide a voice to the voiceless and opportunities to communities that have been historically disadvantaged. She currently serves on the boards of the global Harvard Alumni Association as an Elected Director, the Atlanta Community Foodbank, the Georgia Budget and Policy Institute, Invest Atlanta’s Atlanta Emerging Markets, Inc. and the Advisory Board of the Harvard Debate Council. She has been actively involved in advocacy efforts to increase housing affordability and efforts to pass legislation and policies to protect victims of human sex trafficking in Georgia and provide for a fair workplace for women. In addition, she is a highly regarded keynote speaker and workshop facilitator and delivered her TEDx talk “If We Are More Alike Than Unalike, Then…” - www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4gv6qvYJFQ for TEDx Centennial Park Women. Tiffany Manuel: Dr. Tiffany Manuel is President and CEO of TheCaseMade, an organization dedicated to helping passionate social changemakers, innovators and adaptive leaders around the United States make the case for building stronger communities that are diverse, equitable and inclusive. By aligning their community stakeholders around the kind of deep systems change that can improve population outcomes, these leaders are able to grow their impact, scale their programs, and harness the investments they need to improve their communities. Dr. Manuel has written extensively on how we make the case for systems change and her book on public will building lays out the core principles of effective casemaking. She believes that this is a powerful moment in our nation to live into our values and she works with social changemakers to ensure that we do. Walter Gilliam: I am the Elizabeth Mears and House Jameson Professor of Child Psychiatry and Psychology at the Yale University Child Study Center, as well as the Director of The Edward Zigler Center in Child Development and Social Policy. My work spans education, health and mental health, and child development, with a specific interest in the role of policy and systems.
2020.08.17 17:06 Buck_JoffreyWealth Formula Episode 225: Ask Buck
Catch the full episode: https://www.wealthformula.com/podcast/225-ask-buck/ Buck: Welcome back to the show everyone and welcome to another episode of Ask Buck. You know I will say that one of the things that people ask me all the time is where do I start with this stuff? I had a friend of mine visiting from San Francisco and he's a very very smart guy, one very very smart guy works for Apple et cetera. But this is not his space and we were talking a lot about some of the concepts we deal with on a regular basis here and he said well what do I read and I said to him you know you know I might start with like the Cashflow Quadrant or something like that right because that really sort of gives you some of the basic fundamentals but I can't think of any book right now off the top of my head that really goes into the types of granular detail on okay once you get the big picture yeah you read Kiyosaki etc. Now how can I put some of these things into action? I do believe quite honestly that we have the best show when it comes to alternative investing strategies and that kind of thing anyway with that being said let's start we're going to do all voice questions this week and I'm doing it a little bit different usually I spend a little you know a bunch of time listening and prepared answers but I'm going to make this more conversational this time. So first question here, I'm gonna roll. Adam: Hey Buck how's it going? I'm a big fan of your work and the content you put out. I had a question about a comment you made on your podcast with Dante Andrade. You made a comment that you and your investment partners maybe not including Dante as it seems he might have some investments in Oklahoma had made a conscious decision not to invest in the state of Oklahoma. I'm an ER doctor living and working in California but I am from Oklahoma originally. My spouse and I have been looking into investing in single-family homes in Oklahoma given my connections to the state and the low cost of the homes located there. I know you're very busy and understand if you have time to answer this question, but could you possibly elaborate on why you decided not to invest in Oklahoma? I'm curious because it is a red state with similar politics to the other states you mentioned you invest in including Arizona, Texas and Florida. Any response would be greatly appreciated. Thanks for all you do. Adam. Buck: That is actually a great question and there's a few different reasons that I'm not a big fan of Oklahoma as an investment market and part of it is just you know the fact that I have a certain kind of buy box and I have a certain kind of desire for you know certain kinds of performance. So the issue with Oklahoma in my view is that there really is no true significant demographic growth. There's not a huge amount of growth in terms of you know different industries, there is a lot of there's a fair amount of oil dependence but it's not like a Dallas Fort Worth or you know Phoenix Scottsdale where you know the u-haul numbers of people moving in are like off the charts and when you have like huge population growth that is usually because of jobs and when those people need to move in that's usually when there's a need for housing and then ultimately that pushes up prices on rents and when rents go up that increases the prices of our assets right because we're driving up an NOI cap rates become more compressed in those areas et cetera. Now what happened over the last couple of years was that these markets that I think that I'm describing that are very in my opinion very desirable like the Dallas Fort Worth the the Houston or you know it was Phoenix Scottsdale or even you know Atlanta some of the Florida markets the the thing is that everybody was you know everybody's buying stuff there so the cap rates were compressing more and more and more and that forced a lot of people to go into what we would call tertiary, what I would call tertiary markets. Oklahoma city being one of them and even in Oklahoma city you're seeing some level of cap rate compression but the difference in that market is that there really is no fundamentals to back up that compression okay so that's why I did not want to go anywhere near oklahoma city at least from the multi-family standpoint. Now understand too that again my buy box is really something where I can add value and where we think that we can continue to increase rents and then ultimately divest because of you know we've driven up NOI tertiary markets are not all bad right the thing is that I would say that if you're looking you know the area this is your space except you know and you know it's your backyard you know it understand that oklahoma city and other tertiary markets I think you can sometimes look at them more as coupon cutters right so say for example your you know you buy a property for seventy five hundred thousand dollars which is you know and I know you can do that in some of these markets just don't expect that property to appreciate very much right I mean it may not appreciate much at all in the next 10-15 years if you're looking at it purely as a yield play that you're just gonna hold on to and you know collect coupons and say you know seven eight percent per year or whatever and you're okay with that then by all means it's just not part of what we do and I think from the standpoint of multi-family in commercial real estate it's in my opinion is not a very good business but you know coupon clippers in your own backyard hey there's nothing wrong with that but I certainly wouldn't I certainly wouldn't go in there and create a big business plan around Oklahoma city. Hopefully that answers your question. All right let's see next question. Eric: Hi Buck this is Eric from San Diego long time listener and part of the Investor Club. Just want to thank you for all you do with the podcast and Investor Club bringing all the great investment opportunities to the community. So my question is with 5g still in the early development stages here in the united states have you looked into any related investment opportunities such as data centers or cell towers and if so are you aware of any syndication opportunities out there? Thanks Buck. Buck: Thank you Eric. Here let me answer it this way. I think that you know the Investor Club with me sort of leading that Investor Club thesis and investing we start with what we know and what I know is you know this space and apartment buildings really well we're doing really really really well in that as as you know and you know we're doing some self storage as well, however I think that over the course of the next decade we are going to start looking at some things that are more opportunistic. I think for the last few years you know our group has, I have specifically been concerned about the fact that we are in the longest expansion of GDP in US history that some sort of you know recession was imminent and therefore decided not to do anything that I considered sort of a little bit more of a shiny object or something like that. However the data center issue that you bring up is something that smart money is looking at. I had lunch with a guy who represents a big chinese investor group and they're buying up data centers across the country right now. So do I know of any syndications or groups and stuff like that doing that at our retail level? I do not. However that doesn't mean that we may not get involved in this kind of thing ourselves in the next you know couple of years. One thing that I'll say is that what you know what our group is going to start focusing on is going to be based on a Covid economy and I think a post Covid economy means some coming off of a very steep recession and knowing that we have some runway knowing that there's going to be things that are discounted we're not seeing any discounts in multi-family in fact we're seeing cap rate compression right now but we we may see some discounts and things that we know are going to come back we may see technologies like towers and stuff that we know hey we can buy this now and we think that the economy is going to boom in the next 10 years. So yeah I think it's all on the table data centers are definitely on my big list of possibilities that including I'm also potentially looking at the the you know the hotel market and I'm not talking about offshore stuff I'm just talking about basic stuff you know like local small hotels you know that you would stay in you know like the Hiltons and and things like that that are just getting crushed right now and we'll have a show on that pretty soon but that could be another space as well. But yeah to answer your question right now I don't know enough about it but it is something that we will look into, but thanks for your question. All right next question. Eric: Hi Buck this is Eric from San Diego. I have an interesting question for you, a little off topic but I know you're a sports fan so do you think the NFL could pull off a reasonably successful 2020 season if they adopt some of the NBA strategies? For example all the NBA players coaches refs and support staff are located in a basically a bubble environment down in florida right now for the season and maybe the NFL could adopt this strategy by NFL division or even conference in combination with a shortened schedule maybe that could lead to a successful season it does seem like major league baseball is struggling in comparison to the NBA so just as a fellow sports fan and retired medical professional who's just curious of your thoughts. Thanks. Buck: Yeah it's funny Eric I think he these are the kinds of questions I think about a lot too as you know I'm a big sports fan. Yeah I think the challenge in my opinion that's gonna happen with the NFL is that a lot of these guys you know unlike professional basketball and unlike professional baseball a lot of these guys have really you know they're these guys are overweight. A lot of them have got these massive you know body mass indexes and so that's what creates I think additional risk for them and you're seeing that I think you know some of these guys opting out and they know they're kind of overweight and they're you know overweight and african-american those are you know a couple of what seems to be right now fairly significant risk factors once you get covid having some bad outcomes. I am hopeful that given their you know what they're doing right now and you know they're being careful that we can have a season but honestly I just I don't know I mean the reality is if if they you know I think the problem is I think once you get one guy on a team who's got covid and they've been practicing with them I don't know what they're gonna do with I mean they're gonna have to like quarantine for a couple weeks. It's going to be a big mess let's just hope for the best and yeah I'm with you the the sports is kind of freaking me out a little bit and although I will say that I am kind of enjoying baseball again I haven't watched baseball since the old strike back in the 90s I used to be a Minnesota Twins fan when I was in high school and in middle school. They won a couple world series. I used to love watching baseball. Stopped watching it all together but now it's like the only thing that I'm really you know that I mean there's hockey now I don't really have a hockey team but the dodgers are kind of fun to watch anyway yeah thanks for the question let's move on here. Jyoti: So my question is you know definitely a first world problem type of question and then you know we're really grateful for everything that we have as a dual physician household I have been is graduating radiation oncology residency next year and I've been in practice sub-specialized for six or seven years trying to improve on the financial side of things since we have a two-year-old now and trying to balance work and some of these investments trying to think about you know what is best is it best for us to get REP status, one of us to get REP status which would mean cutting back on work and you know I guess owning real estate forcing that appreciation increasing our net worth that way or you know doing that to some extent just enough to get REP status and then kind of putting the rest of our efforts into syndications because at that point once I have rough status or one of us has REP status we could shelter active the syndication losses would be active losses as far as I'm thinking and therefore we could shelter active income I guess that's my biggest thing trying to figure out at what income number where does that you know like is it and I guess that also depends on the type of properties I'm able to find but I haven't really sat down to do the math yet just because I don't know what opportunities I'll have available to me whenever we pick our next place to move once my husband graduates next year. Kind of a lot of moving parts also I'm thinking oh you know w2 employees don't have any deductions maybe I should look at a 1099 position work part-time and then be able to do some of the you know purchasing of property get REP status and then also do a combination of that and syndications both as limited and general partner that was kind of my main question and then as a secondary question, any thoughts on conservation easement has anybody done it tried it does it work? I know there are some pitfalls that I've read about but you know all of this is in theory and just trying to look for somebody who's done it in real life. Appreciate your time and energy into this question. Thank you so much for answering this question. Buck: Thanks for the question. There's a few different ones there and let me just clarify when she's talking about REP status REP she's talking about the real estate professional status so this is an IRS designation that basically if you have material activity in real estate of 750 hours or more per year and that you don't do anything else more than that, that you you're considered what's called a real estate professional. Now the value of that is say you're married to you say you're a real estate professional and you have a spouse who is a high paid W-2 professional because you're filing jointly all of these passive losses that you would get as a real estate professional that ordinarily would have to stay in the passive basket and could not be applied against W-2 income could then actually be applied. So it's actually a huge opportunity for people who fit this category. I mean for example if you have you know if you had a hundred thousand dollars of bonus depreciation one spouse did and the other spouse was making you know 300 or 400,000 a year that K1 showing the hundred thousand dollars loss could be applied against the w-2 and decrease AGI. Without that real estate professional designation that passive loss could not be applied against the w-2 so that's the whole concept that Jyoti is trying to get at. You will have to do the math on this because I think it depends on a lot of things but I will tell you that a number of people in our group have made a conscious decision where one spouse you know because they were involved in real estate already and they realized that maybe they were making you know one spouse was making a lot more than the other and you know the one who was making less was like well you know we actually would come out making more money on the ba at least if you think about it how much you take home at least if we could just have those deductions from the real estate activity rather than taking the you know 50 75 grand whatever the spouse is making you might end up with you know two hundred thousand dollar deduction against four hundred thousand dollar income. So those kinds of things I mean honestly it's just about sitting down and doing the math. I don't know that there's a magic number or magic way to do that other than to you know figure out but generally speaking this will be advantageous if one if one spouse is making significantly more and again we're talking about you know a few hundred thousand dollars on one side and maybe 50 000 or 75 on the other well you're probably better off you know just really focusing on real estate and trying to get the real estate professional designation, building your net worth with real estate and ultimately taking those deductions along the way. To your question about you know you know potentially just decreasing hours, you know and being a 1099 I think being a 1099 in general over being a w-2 is going to be advantageous no matter what. I mean you you really if you have an entity that is receiving the 1099 you got to make sure you do that so you don't end up with a bunch of self-employment taxes do an s selection you're going to be in much better shape you're going to be able to do a lot more stuff than you are as a w-2. Let me just back up here and let you know that I am not a CPA, I'm not a tax professional so don't take anything I am saying as to you know tax advice I don't want to you know have you guys come and try to sue me or anything like that but this is my understanding and I think part of what you may need to do is you may need a very good CPA because a lot of these a lot of these things ultimately coming you know your decisions on you know becoming a real estate professional whether or not you'll use a you know a 1099 versus you know being a w-2 versus you know the conservation easement option that you brought up. All of these are highly reliant on a CPA who's confident and feels comfortable with you doing these types of things there's nothing illegal about what we're talking about but not all CPAs are created equally. As to your question about conservation easements conservation easements are a hot topic. The IRS sees them as sort of you know blatant tax mitigation or tax of avoidance and we've talked about them before but in effect what happens is you give up you know you you buy into property, that property that instead of going into development is given gives up its rights for building on and because of that you can take the deduction typically that's on the valuation of the property that would be there, that's a mouthful go listen to it again. But bottom line is what it has allowed people to do in the past is you know if you had an investment of or you know say a hundred thousand dollars or something potentially take a deduction you know up to four or five times that because the valuation came out that way. I'm not going to talk about it too much right now. It's a hot button issue. We will have more clarity on it later. I will say yes you know many people in our group have done this the the devil is in the details it really you have to use a reputable group you have to use a reputable operator there's a this is the wild wild west and if you're not careful you'll do something wrong and you know it'll end up costing you a lot of money that's the bottom line. Conservation easements are real they're used left and right by the affluent and if you are part of Investor Club if you're an accredited investor you know we talk about this stuff and we'll continue to talk about this in the next year. If you're not accredited you're not going to be able to participate in anything like this anyway so hopefully that's helpful. I know I was just being a little bit circuitous about answering that but you know that's it's a little tricky on that one so. Okay here's another question from Eric Eric: Hi Buck. This is Eric in San Diego. Long time listener and part of the Investor Club. First off just like to thank you for all the great content incredible guests you have on your show as well as all the investment opportunities you bring to the Investor Club community. So my question is, it is often described that there are really only four asset classes: paper, business, real estate and commodities. So which of those would you say is the best for cash flow investing? What might be the best for growth or appreciation investing? And what might be the best for just simply wealth preservation? Thanks Buck. Buck: Okay yeah it's not an easy question Eric and you know a lot of it's just because I'm biased right? I mean let's just try to do this methodically. But if you look at what you're talking about okay well let's start with cash flow okay and go down the list that you talked about businesses commodities paper real estate I think that if you own a business it's probably gonna it's gonna probably be the highest if you have a successful business and from my personal experience that is your opportunity for the highest level of cash flow but it is highly often highly volatile and and risky other than that of course you know commodities you're really not going to get any cash flow there. Paper is going to be dividend stocks or something like that that's about it. So bing bing bing bing it looks like I think real estate probably is in my opinion your best opportunity for cash flow that is you know reasonably a reasonable yield but yet still pretty safe. That's not to under undervalue businesses because I will tell you if you can be an entrepreneur and you can do some high you know cash flowing businesses, definitely a great way to go but I don't really consider businesses as, the way I do them, I don't really consider them investments as much as vehicles where I'm generating income to then use for investments. In other words my businesses actually fund my investments so that's the way I look at it. As far as you know growth and appreciation again if you are somebody who can take a business from scratch and you know turn it into something of value I mean you know that you can get huge valuations but again it is one of those things where you know it's not easy to do, it's not really in my opinion necessarily an investment. I mean obviously for a limited partner and you can get in early on something then great but again high risk potentially high reward because again you're dealing with valuations and business you may get lucky and invest in the next facebook the next unicorn etc but more often than not you're going to invest in things that fail and you lose all your money. But so business for growth and appreciation I would say that commodities well gold I don't know that I would call it a growth in appreciation if you look over the last 20 years or 30 years I mean from an inflation standpoint I don't know that it's really moved at all you know paper growth and appreciation again stocks and stuff like that. Sure I mean I think that you know growth and appreciation at least from a statistical standpoint you know having a portfolio of stocks has been worthwhile for that but again for me the growth and appreciation I mean if you look at where what we're doing and you know in Investor Club we're getting growth we're getting appreciation it's you know enormous amounts of of growth and appreciation we're getting with without you know frankly as much volatility and again just having you know real assets so again real estate wins for me there again. Finally for wealth preservation I think you know I don't think businesses necessarily in my view are wealth preservation tools. Okay gold commodities you talk about gold sure I mean I think statistically or historically we should say if you look at gold it's probably the the greatest wealth preservation tool in the history of the world right because in the times of Christ an ounce of gold would you would buy you a nice toga you know in a pair of sandals and now an ounce of gold will buy you a pretty nice suit and a pair of shoes. So there is a there is that wealth preservation aspect for gold in particular you know I don't know, paper I think it's you know depends I mean yeah I think if you look historically again in the stock market over time it is going to it has grown right so but I would say if you're talking about you know if you invested in in something now and didn't plan on divesting for 100 years from now it might be better to be in gold if your purpose was to preserve wealth the last part of that though again for wealth preservation and I've made this point several times on this show before and I'll still stand by it is that the value of gold is a real asset and ultimately hedge against inflation and you know it's sort of the anti-dollar that's my view and I think that's a view of a lot of people and to me I don't see a significant difference if you're talking about you know holding real estate versus holding gold. I don't see a big difference I don't see why I would hold gold instead of real estate and in fact I don't hold gold because real estate again is a massive hedge against inflation. If you look at what a lot of foreign groups are doing you know they just go in in Dallas and they plop down 25 30 million dollars and buy an apartment building and it's barely cash flowing but they don't care because they're just looking at it as a big piece of gold that's what they're looking at it is so again for wealth preservation I would say real estate and for me personally real estate but but also gold but yeah I mean it's a tough question. I think different people will give you different takes on that. All right let's see next question. Kevin: Hi Buck. This is Kevin calling from San Jose California. Just so near you thank you so much for your podcast I've only recently found it and been listening every day on my commute to work and it's been a real like an earthquake for me a little bit about myself, I'm in my early 30s I'm a physical therapist so a more modest income than maybe most of your listeners but still love to learn from high net worth individuals like yourself and how to think about building wealth. So out of school I was given the script of try to max out my 401k contribute to a roth IRA, don't get life insurance, six months emergency fund and savings account invest in low-cost index fund and buy a house as soon as I can which where I live is just... Anyway, I was wondering what you would suggest I do to transition into a more Wealth Formula mindset should I stop contributing to my 401k and Roth IRA and put money into whole life insurance and things like real estate crowdfunding. Do you have a six-month emergency fund or do you use your life insurance cash balance for emergencies? Any insight on these mainstream personal finance scripts would be greatly appreciated. You are really an inspiration and I don't wish for much, just that maybe one day I can live a more financially free life. Thanks. Buck: Well hey thanks for the question again I want to just start out by saying I don't want to I you know won't give you financial advice per se I can just give you some thoughts but don't think of it as advice because again I am not a certified financial planner and apparently that if you do that you know three months or so you can give advice but I'm not going to give advice. So listen here's here's what I'll tell you I think that it's a change in mindset right. You live in you know you live in San Jose houses are very expensive et cetera et cetera et cetera. There are ways to invest outside of the traditional paradigm you know in ways that you don't even have to be accredited, I mean let's just take our sponsor AHP Servicing for example I mean these guys are pushing out you know 10 annualized 10 per year and did you get a monthly check and you know it's something that you can participate in right that is an income yielding product. I do think that going back to you know my own roots as being a resident, my own thinking was very much of okay how do I start building assets? How do I create assets? I think in your situation it's a little bit hard because you know buying real estate you know cash flowing real estate in Silicon Valley is no joke but the thing is that there's the saying that you know live where you want to live invest where it makes sense and so you need to start looking at that there are various ways to you know begin that process even if it means you know investing in turnkey type properties etc. So I think there's lots of opportunities for somebody who's not you know high net worth to change their paradigm a little bit so I don't think you're stuck there. As far as the 401ks and all that and the iras and stuff here's my take and again this is my opinion right. So let's talk about you know the idea of using a 401k or an IRS. The concept is that you're going to defer you know today's taxes and pay them later in life right. So there's a couple of assumptions there that I don't like one is that when people give you these kinds of great numbers and projections of financial advisors they presume that the tax rates are not going to be higher when you retire and you assuming you're in your you know 30s or 40s or whatever I would ask you to look at the condition that our country's in right now I think what 23 trillion dollars now in debt you know it's it it is a you know huge budget deficits et cetera and we're really at a point in history in the US where we're probably the lowest tax rate we've ever been at. So the question is do you think paying tax now while taxes are relatively low makes sense or do you want to wait until they're much higher I i would personally think that if you've got to pay them, I would pay them now and and not think of this as a tax deferment for the future when you know when taxes are going to be a lot a lot higher in my opinion. So in that regard if you're choosing between an IRA and a Roth IRA, I would take the Roth. Okay now that being said a roth IRS doesn't do you any more good than a permanent life insurance policy does, you know specifically speaking about Wealth Formula Banking or you know leveraged like velocity plus you can check both of those webinars out at wealthformulabanking.com. In my opinion, again this is me and my I don't have an IRA, I do not have a 401k, but I do have a lot of permanent life insurance products and it's not just for my kids, it's for me and growth and retirement but if you look at what you know Wealth Formula Banking does for you or what Velocity Plus can do for you it's like having a roth on steroids without restrictions. So again emphasizing that I'm not giving you financial advice personally rather than contributing to these things I would be doing I would be looking at the Wealth Formula banking products. Now the exception to that is in some situations if you have an actual match from your employer well then you really have to do the math there because then it gets a little bit trickier because I think if somebody's going to give you more money and they match you dollar per dollar which you know I've seen these kinds of things then I think the the idea of doing the traditional root of you know qualifying funds might make more sense the math might make more sense than that. Anyway hopefully that answers your question but good luck to you I think you know one thing that Tom Wheelwright says to me and says to people in general tom said this to me many years ago and and he says he said it to many people who have changed their situation is if you want to change your tax you got to change your facts so you know learn what the tax law is learn about the cCashflow Quadrant read you know kiyosaki's book and if you know if you're compelled to do so start making some changes in your life that will help you with your financial goals because you know it doesn't not everybody needs to quit their day job. Most people shouldn't quit their day job, but a lot of people can significantly improve you know their quality of life their financial situation just by understanding what you know the quadrant is and what the tax laws are and how you can keep more of your money or make more money. Okay let's see. Terry: Hi Buck. I see that the 2020 charitable contribution limit was increased to 100 percent of AGI. I'm wondering if the non-cash for example conservation easement limit has gone up with that also. Thanks. Buck: Terry, good question. In fact I think we just talked about this in Wealth Formula network the yesterday and by the way if you're interested Wealth Formula Network is our private group our you know it starts out with a course and then we have this bi-weekly zoom video calls and we also have a facebook group et cetera, it's a tight group if you like this kind of stuff you'll definitely love that group if you want to check it out go to wealthformularoadmap.com we'd love to have you there. Terry as far as your question goes again I'm not a tax professional I am not a cpa and therefore not qualified to give you an answer, however I will tell you that I asked the question of my cpa myself and unfortunately that increase in limitation for charitable giving does not apply to conservation easement. So again conservation easements are this magical tool that have been used by the wealthy. Basically the idea is you are donating the rights of building on land you know you're giving those up in exchange for a deduction of the valuation for the potential of that land. So for example you may have have a property that you acquired for a million dollars and there's a bunch of mining capability there's a bunch of ore or you know precious stuff underneath the ground and you say I'm not going to drill for that stuff and I'll never drill that and there's a value to that and all of a sudden the value might be that land and everything included in it might actually be 5 million instead of the 1 million that you paid for it so by giving up those rights you could potentially take a deduction of you know five million dollars instead of the one million, anyway that's the concept with conservation easement once again. It is something that the IRS hates there's a lot of you know controversy around it we'll be talking about it more in Investor Club there are some other things that might be you know potentially a little bit less controversial. Anyway that's it I think for this week of questions because we're you know we've got a bunch more but I think we'll start over next week and so with that we'll be right back
to keep it simple, nearly everything is plentiful. Hand sanitizer is everywhere. Saw an endcap full of large, 32oz pump style containers tonight at Walmart. Home Depot has a display full of gallon containers of it. Zep brand.
meat is a little thinner than usual, but plenty to chose from
things still hard to come by/hit or miss - Clorox wipes/isopropyl alcohol. Glad I stocked up on both.
Gasoline - $1.85-$1.99. Everywhere. All over both states. Unusual as there is generally a lot of variability, esp across state lines as the fuel taxes are different. Trains - long, with engines in the middle at times. Saw one come by recently with 10 or so cars of cut hardwood trees. That’s a bit unusual, but not sure if it’s significant. Agriculture - peach growers pulled in a bumper crop. Livestock has been plentiful in local Facebook groups. Despite some outbreaks in local meat packing plants early on, no new outbreaks have been reported recently. Lots of COVID related news While it seemed to receive little national attention, South Carolina had the third worst outbreak in the world around a month ago. For weeks, daily average cases were in the 1,800 to 2,400 range. In the last week, daily cases have been hovering around 700-1000. The SC Gov allowed cities to enact their own mask rules. SCDHEC did an analysis recently and found that those jurisdictions with mask requirements in place have seen an overall decrease of 15.1% of total cases for the four weeks after the requirements were implemented. During the same time frame, those jurisdictions without mask requirements have experienced an overall increase in total cases of 30.4% Based on my own observations, mask usage went from less than 5% to around 95%. In Georgia, Gov Kemp banned local governments from enacting masks rules. Ga has leveled off and is declining slightly. In the past couple of days, Kemp has said local mask rules can be put in place. News reports of COVID deaths are becoming more common. Examples here, here, and here. HOSPITALS Hospitals are generally holding their own, but their COVID ICUs are full, so they’ve had to utilize ICU space that is used for other conditions. That means that their capacity to treat conditions that require those ICU beds is diminished. Patients are avoiding the hospital. Examples here and here. That happened back in March/April, and it’s not good because delays in treating those conditions can easily result in death. Every hospital I visit is saying the same thing. “We’re holding our own for now, but we’re usually pretty empty this time of year. If things don’t change before October (when inpatient admissions for all disease states rise and flu season starts) we’re going to be in big trouble.” Hospitals also commenting on in-person school starting back. It’s not that they’re worried about the kids, it’s that they’re worried about the kids spreading it to at risk family members at home. A hospital in South Georgia had to ship a patient out and the closest available ICU bed was in East Tennessee. Not going to comment much on the school situation as that made national headlines.
2020.08.14 15:50 Borchert97Downloaded NH5 Since It's Free, My Thoughts + Suggestions Moving Forward
It's pretty much as bad as I've heard it is, now I want to preface this by saying I've been a LONG-TIME supporter of 704 games, as I either pre-ordered or purchased the first four titles on release day and quite frankly, NH5 is a worse title than NH4. It's just NH4 with a roster update, but with more issues than NH4 had. Here's how I spent a couple hours on NH5 after downloading it for free: First, I made my custom driver and cars, basically the same as NH4, nothing special here. They actually took a step backwards on custom wheels, instead of giving us options of different preset wheels that maintained the colored outer rim of the official Aero wheels used by NASCAR, we can fully customize the color, but we don't have the preset options that had the colored rim which I really enjoyed having as it made your car look more "real". That's not to mention all the wheel color glitches the game has been shown to have. Also, the addition of more number fonts is cool, but most of them are too small and the ones that are big are subjectively ugly (my opinion, maybe some of you guys like those fonts). Then I tried out some challenges and this is where I just shook my head. The first challenge is Justin Allgaier trying to win the title by beating Reddick. Reddick isn't even in the field. Riley Herbst is leading. I get he's not in the 2020 field, so use his car from NH4. There's no excuse not to. Eutechnyx had 2013 challenges in NASCAR '14 and they either used the actual cars from 2013 or used that driver's car from 2014, or at least the right car number. The second challenge I tried was Kurt Busch at Kentucky and this one was laughable. You don't even restart the race like a real restart, it brings you across the line with 2 to go at race pace, 170mph+, there isn't even a field, there's only five cars on the track. For some reason the #00 with Quin Houff is in 5th, there is no #42 car in 6th to push you. Another thing they should've done is use telemetry data to map the cars for challenges like what Eutechnyx did. Eutechnyx's challenges were actually hard and ridiculously fun to not only play, but replay as crazy as that sounds. On Inside Line, playing the 2011 Atlanta challenge as Jimmie Johnson trying to beat Jeff Gordon while both of you are sliding around on old tires, AND his car is mapped by telemetry so you have to race around that is really enjoyable. The other two challenges I did were the Cindric at Canadian Tire one, and the road racing in this game still sucks, you take a hard corner and the car still jumps on two wheels. This has been an issue since the first game, how have they not fixed this? Then I did the Kurt Busch wreck avoidance at Talladega and the screen tearing was awful, that challenge pushes the very graphical limitations of the game, when the Eutechnyx games from 8 years ago could render 43 cars and a major crash at Talladega with little difficulty. The dirt late models still do wheelies which is just dumb. They're light on the front end and it's not uncommon to see the left front up in the air on dirt track cars, but the extent that the late models lift is just ridiculous. I was so disappointed with the game up to this point that I didn't even bother starting career mode, which is one of the main things I play NASCAR games for. From what I've heard it's basically exactly like NH4. They've actually made it too easy, in my opinion over the years. With NH2 and even NH3 it was A LOT harder to move up the ranks. In NH4 you're just handed top tier rides out the absolute ass like you're the next Kyle Busch or Jeff Gordon or something. It's really unrealistic to not make us work for those rides. Also, nobody asked for the shitty eSports paint schemes. Instead of those cars, give us real alternate paint schemes and don't make us pay to have more than one car per driver. Missing tracks that have been confirmed to be on the schedule for a year now is unacceptable of a yearly title. Not having Daytona's road course is fine, it wasn't meant to be on the schedule, but the Indy Road Course was well-known to have a date. So now that I'm dumb bashing this objectively terrible game, I'm going to take this opportunity to give some suggestions, since I think the next gen console game is going to be 704's last real chance to redeem themselves. If they don't absolutely nail NH6, they might as well drop their NASCAR game contract. This SHOULD go without saying, but fix the obvious issues the game has had since the first title. The road racing is horrid. The cars are awful to drive, they want to flip over just from taking turns, my car jumps onto two wheels almost every lap on at least one section of every road course. In fact, the handling model as a whole on these games is just subpar, you can play a Eutechnyx game or any Forza game and see what I mean, these games don't handle like a real car at all. The Eutechnyx games had their issues but one thing they didn't have an issue with was the handling of the car, the contact physics between cars, and the tire model. All were pretty close to flawless. As someone who's driven racecars (both stock cars on ovals and sports cars on road courses), I can't defend the Heat Series as being anything close to realistic. How can you try to act all serious and have an eSports Pro League when the game drives like crap? The handling model and the contact physics need an entire overhaul. So does the actual design of the car. If the car can tilt onto two wheels and borderline flip, or pop wheelies when you mash the gas, that design needs to be scrapped and rebuilt from the ground up. I'm not asking for iRacing quality here, but even the Eutechnyx games made a really good handling model. iRacers to this day praise Eutechnyx for being the next-best thing and in some ways, it's better. I've been told that the tire model on Eutechnyx is second-to-none. If NH6 can play even remotely close to how NASCAR Inside Line or NASCAR '14-15 plays, I will be thoroughly impressed. I still go back and play those games to this day to get my NASCAR game fix and to this day the only games I've ever enjoyed enough to sit through and race a full 100% length race are those games and Dirt to Daytona, which brings me to my next point. Overhaul the career mode. While it's "solid" in the realm of NASCAR (admittedly it's one of the better career modes), it's become worse since NH2. Look at Dirt to Daytona for example, to move up to the next series you literally had to win the Championship. If you didn't win it, tough shit, try again for another season and maybe you'll get it next year. If you play the whole game on legend difficulty, it takes on average, 2 seasons per series to move up, which means it takes you 5-6 seasons to even touch Cup. This is what a good career mode looks like, of course if you want to blast through the lower levels on a lower difficulty, you can, and I'm all for being able to customize your career mode, but for those of us who enjoy a hardcore realism factor to our NASCAR games, and wants to be punished for not performing, LET US. I'll give another Dirt to Daytona example, one time in Dirt to Daytona I had just made it to Cup and dumped a ton of money I made racing Trucks into a good engine for the Daytona 500, I got crashed and blew the engine, I barely had enough money to even race the 500 to pay my team so I was banking on a good payday, so instead of making money or breaking even, I had to pay to fix the engine, which sent me like -$200,000 in debt. If you're in debt you can't pay your team which means you aren't able to race Cup or Trucks. I missed half the season while I raced Modifieds just to get my balance back to a positive number so I could go back to racing Cup and Trucks. Because I fell behind and missed half the season I finished 40-something in Cup points and lost my ride, so because of one crash I missed half a season then was left without a ride for the season after. THAT is what a NASCAR career mode should feel like. What I want in a career mode is a mix of the Formula 1 games and the Project Cars games. I LOVE the immersion of the F1 career modes and I'm not even an F1 fan. I can't say I've watched but maybe one race from start to finish, and I'm not very good at driving the cars either, but the immersion of the games is SO enjoyable. Moving up to F1 with a rival from F2, having battles with your teammate and rival on-track to come out on top, conducting live interviews that can directly impact your team and the performance of your car is just incredible. We should get more stuff like that in a NASCAR game. Not just some cringy texts and tweets. On the Project Cars side of things, I want a more diverse path to Cup, no two Cup drivers made it the same way, let us choose our own path. Jimmie Johnson skipped Trucks, Kurt Busch skipped XFINITY. Some drivers have never driven on dirt in their life. Where's the ARCA Series? Modifieds? Give us an asphalt street stock or late model series. Let us choose or form our specialty. Are we a dirt ringer, or maybe a road ringer? Depending on our performance on dirt if we choose that path, let that allow us to make our Truck debut at Eldora as a hyped up dirt ringer, and if we win maybe that leads to a full-time contract with a Truck team. How about as a road ringer? Maybe we get a one-time offer to race the Roval in XFINITY and if we win we get a full-time ride for next season. Also give us a manufacturer affinity like what Project Cars has. Maybe you're a hardcore Ford guy and you raced nothing but Fords in your entire career mode. REWARD THAT! Ford will notice that and get you better rides and better contracts than you'd get if you switched to Chevy or Toyota. And make it harder to move up if we want it to be harder. We should not be getting a 5-star Cup ride unless we WON the XFINITY Series title. If we make the final 4, maybe we get a 4-star ride, and if we didn't make it to that, you can get a 3-star ride unless you have a strong manufacturer affinity, that affinity could serve to get you better rides even if you don't win the title or make the final 4. If we're going off a tier system like what Project Cars has, give us something like this: Tier 1: Cup Tier 2: XFINITY Tier 3: Trucks Tier 4: ARCA Tier 5: ARCA West or ARCA East Tier 6: Dirt late models or asphalt street stocks You can choose to start in either tier 6 series, if you choose dirt, your natural progression would be to ARCA West since they have a dirt race, or if you're an asphalt guy you can go to the East instead. Once you're in one of them, you can cross over to the other, if you keep performing on dirt you can skip ARCA entirely and get a Truck offer to race Eldora to help springboard your career. If you choose to stick to a more traditional asphalt path, maybe as a road ringer, you could skip from ARCA to XFINITY by getting a one-race deal to run the Roval or Road America or something. Give us those kinds of options to move along the ladder how we want, as long as it makes sense. That's about all I have for now. Fix the bugs, make the cars drive good, and improve the career mode. The racing game market is competitive and I have games to scratch my NASCAR itch with (my favorite ones to play are NASCAR '15 and Dirt to Daytona), so I'm not buying another 704 game unless it's truly a worthy title to own. I've been enjoying the hell out of F1 2019 and Project Cars 2 though.